I. Key Focus Areas (Highlighting cost fluctuations, weekly supply-demand outlook, and hot events)
October 15: Tensions in the Middle East have sustained supply risks, while market sentiment regarding global demand remains pessimistic, resulting in mixed movements for international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) rose by $2.88/bbl to $97.97/bbl, a week-on-week increase of +3.03%. ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) fell by $0.14/bbl to $105.92/bbl, a week-on-week decrease of -0.13%. China INE crude oil futures (December 2026 contract) dropped by 21.3 yuan/barrel to 725.2 yuan/barrel during the day session, but rebounded by 0.8 yuan/barrel to 726 yuan/barrel in the night session.
Propylene Oxide (PO): On the previous trading day, the domestic propylene oxide market remained stable and consolidated. Supply-side reductions were limited; current production facilities experienced sluggish shipments, but with some plants reducing output or planning cuts, most inventory levels remained manageable. While slight price negotiations occurred, transaction volumes were minimal, keeping mainstream prices steady. Cost-side fluctuations were insignificant, providing continued support. Downstream demand remained cautious and wait-and-see, with purchases primarily driven by essential needs at reduced volumes, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors in the market.
| Product | Region | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 5500 | 5450 | -0.91% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | East China | 5800 | 5650 | -2.59% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | South China | 6250 | 6100 | -2.4% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Northwest China | 5140 | 5105 | -0.68% |
| Notes: 1. DMC refers to industrial grade. 2. Unit: CNY/ton. 3. For the table above, prices are ex-factory acceptance basis for Shandong, delivered acceptance basis for East China, delivered telegraphic transfer basis for South China, and ex-factory telegraphic transfer basis for Northwest China. 4. Change rate refers to period-over-period fluctuation. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data Indicator | Release Time | Previous Period Data | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly DMC Output | Thu 17:00 PM | 57,700 tons | ↗ |
| Weekly PO Operating Rate | Thu 17:00 PM | 69.9% | ↗ |
| Weekly DMC Operating Rate | Thu 17:00 PM | 68.07% | ↗ |
| Weekly Profit via PO Transesterification (CNY/ton) | Thu 17:00 PM | 302.8 | ↘ |
| Notes: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
Forecast: On the previous trading day, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market exhibited a pattern of rising first then falling, peaking and subsequently retracting. Upstream raw material prices surged significantly, strengthening cost-side support and narrowing factories' room for discounts, leading to upward adjustments in offers. Coupled with widespread bullish expectations among end-users and traders, inquiry and restocking activities were vigorous, as essential and stockpiling demands were concentratedly released, boosting trading activity. Chempricehub Analysis suggests that the short-term domestic DMC market will primarily remain weak.
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