I. Key Points
Core Logic: Market sentiment is cautious, and the market trend is narrow and slightly weak.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 13 | Oct 12 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong (Delivered) | 13550 | 13750 | -1.45% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin (Ex-tank Self-pickup) | 13275 | 13375 | -0.75% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1610 | 1620 | -0.62% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 105.69 | 106.65 | -0.90% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 16400 | 16550 | -0.91% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units for CFR China are USD/ton; units for crude oil are USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices represent spot prices from the two preceding working weeks, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to period-over-period fluctuation. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, the trend of synthetic rubber, a key downstream product, is declining. Market sentiment remains cautious, and downstream buyers show little intention to purchase raw materials. Although high crude oil prices provide some cost support, and some sellers are reluctant to lower prices significantly, slow recovery in downstream demand creates resistance to transactions at high price levels. Consequently, some sellers have offered slight discounts to move inventory. The domestic butadiene market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Data | Expected Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 17:00 PM | 2.6 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 17:00 PM | 4137.98 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 17:00 PM | 4.60 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Fri 17:00 PM | 69.71% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Fri 17:00 PM | 11.28 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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