Mixed market signals lead to sideways consolidation in pyrolysis C9

Lead-in: Prospects for US-Iran talks have emerged, and Saudi pipeline repairs are progressing faster than expected, leading to a pullback in Brent crude prices and weakening cost-side support. Domestic plant loadings fluctuated, resulting in a slight increase in pyrolysis C9 supply. Downstream profitability continued to diverge: margins for industrial aromatic solvents turned sharply negative, while losses for C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resin narrowed further; however, downstream resin buyers resisted high raw material prices, limiting purchases to essential small orders. The downward pressure from falling crude prices was offset by pre-holiday stockpiling demand. With bullish and bearish factors hedging each other, pyrolysis C9 quotes remained stable, and the short-term market trend is characterized by consolidation and volatility.

Domestic Spot Market: National Quotes Stable, Regional Price Spreads Relatively Consistent
2025-2026 Pyrolysis C9 Price Comparison (RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Table 1: China Pyrolysis C9 Regional Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

During this period, regional quotes for domestic pyrolysis C9 remained stable, with the national average price at 5,875 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week. By region, South China held the highest price at an average of 5,913 RMB/ton; Northeast was 5,650 RMB/ton, North China 5,850 RMB/ton, East China 5,812 RMB/ton, and Central China 5,850 RMB/ton—all consistent with the previous period. The price spread between North China and East China maintained at 38 RMB/ton. As some sample enterprises in East China underwent shutdown maintenance, cross-regional arbitrage opportunities did not emerge, limiting inter-regional cargo circulation.

Core Drivers: Multi-Factor Game Theory, Weakening Cost Support, and Divergent Downstream Profits Constraining Market Trends

Table 2: China Pyrolysis C9 Industry Chain Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

1. Cost Side: Rising Expectations of Middle East De-escalation, Crude Pullback Weakens Cost Support

Meetings between the US and Iran during the UN General Assembly led to market expectations of potential de-escalation in the Middle East. Coupled with faster-than-expected repair progress on damaged Saudi oil pipelines, the weekly average price of Brent crude fell to $102.27/barrel, a decrease of $4.23/barrel (-3.97%) week-on-week, thereby weakening cost-side support for pyrolysis C9. Although Iran stated that negotiation conditions were insufficient and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, meaning geopolitical risks have not been fully eliminated, market risk aversion cooled down, exerting downward pressure on raw material costs.

2. Supply Side: Slight Increase in Plant Loadings, Marginal Rise in Supply Creating Bearish Pressure

No new plant shutdowns or maintenance occurred within the week, and loadings at multiple domestic cracking units increased slightly. Shell Phase II maintained temporary maintenance, while Jincheng Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, Zhongyuan Ethylene, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Hainan Refining & Chemical continued long-cycle major maintenance. Pyrolysis C9 production for this period was 60,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons week-on-week; capacity utilization stood at 76.48%, up 0.62 percentage points. On the downstream side, Daqing Huake’s resin unit completed its startup this week, while Fuhua Luhua and Fushun Kelong resin units remained under maintenance. Looking ahead, production is expected to rise to 61,000 tons, indicating a continued expectation of marginal supply increases.

3. Demand Side: Significant Divergence in Downstream Profits, Essential Demand Prevails, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment

Operating loads for the two major downstream sectors remained stable. Capacity utilization for industrial aromatic solvents held at 54.45%. While strong gasoline market performance provided some consumption support, the combination of falling crude prices and pre-holiday destocking led most downstream clients to bargain and wait, causing market transactions to soften slightly and gross margins to turn negative at -69 RMB/ton. Capacity utilization for C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resin remained at 51.69%, with theoretical processing profits at 57 RMB/ton, indicating a further reversal of the loss situation. However, downstream resin buyers showed clear resistance to high raw material prices. With holidays approaching, some negotiations offered room for discounts, but the market limited itself to essential small-order purchases. Willingness for large-scale stockpiling remained weak, constraining upside potential for pyrolysis C9.

Industry Chain Transmission: Falling Cost Support, Divergent Downstream Profits, and Resistance in Cost Pass-through

Affected by expectations of Middle East de-escalation, international crude oil prices pulled back, weakening top-down cost support. Profitability trends among downstream sectors diverged significantly: although industrial aromatic solvents received support from the gasoline market, prices softened due to pre-holiday destocking, causing gross margins to fall sharply. Conversely, C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resin benefited from stable raw material prices, showing obvious profit recovery, but downstream resistance to high prices made it difficult to fully pass on cost pressures. Pyrolysis C9 quotes remained stable supported by independent refiners’ firm pricing stance, but uneven downstream demand acted as a drag. Overall, the market formed a game-theoretic pattern of weakening costs versus pre-holiday demand support.

Summary and Outlook

In summary, expectations of Middle East de-escalation drove crude oil prices lower, weakening cost support; a slight increase in supply created bearish pressure; meanwhile, strong gasoline market performance and pre-holiday stockpiling expectations provided some demand support. With bullish and bearish factors hedging each other, pyrolysis C9 spot prices remained stable, and short-term market trends are expected to consolidate.

Looking ahead to next week, international crude oil futures hold upward expectations, which may strengthen cost-side support. Pyrolysis C9 market supply is expected to continue increasing marginally, creating some bearish pressure. On the demand side, industrial aromatic solvents will fluctuate with the gasoline market, with pre-holiday stockpiling continuing to release demand, keeping overall sentiment relatively strong. The C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resin market is expected to remain stable, with gross margin forecasts declining slightly, and downstream large-scale stockpiling remaining cautious. The mainstream operating range for pyrolysis C9 is predicted to be 5,750–6,050 RMB/ton. Key focus areas for the future include developments in Middle East geopolitical situations, fluctuations in international crude oil prices, operating rates of the two major downstream products, and the pace of pre-holiday restocking.