(1) Last week, propylene prices rose significantly, while glycerin trended weakly downward. The reference negotiated price for Shandong propylene was approximately RMB 11,310/ton, and the reference negotiated price for East China 99.5% glycerin was approximately RMB 8,735/ton.
(2) Last week, the average price of Shandong propylene was RMB 11,310/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was RMB 490/ton. As of the close on October 30, the weekly average theoretical profit margin for epichlorohydrin (ECH) produced via the propylene route stood at -RMB 430/ton.
(3) Last week, the domestic ECH industry’s weekly average capacity utilization rate was 41.62%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week.
(4) Last week, the domestic epoxy resin industry’s weekly average market capacity utilization rate was 49.69%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.57 percentage points. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 51.83% and 38.41%, respectively.
Core Logic: Cost pressures and supply-demand dynamics are in conflict. The market exhibits a sentiment to maintain prices; however, downstream participation is cautious, with procurement primarily based on actual demand. Incremental demand growth is limited, resulting in moderate trading activity.
| Product | Region | Oct 30 | Oct 23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | North China | 11,925 | 10,760 | +1,165 |
| Glycerin | East China | 8,675 | 8,800 | -125 |
| Epichlorohydrin (ECH) | East China | 11,150 | 11,125 | +25 |
| E-51 Epoxy Resin (Net Water Ex-factory) | East China | 15,100–15,300 | 14,900–15,200 | +200 / +100 |
| ECH Industry Supply and Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Oct 30 | Oct 23 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 41.62% | 42.49% | -0.87% | ↓ |
| Propylene Route Production Profit (RMB/ton) | -430 | 699 | -161.52% | ↑ |
| Glycerin Route Production Profit (RMB/ton) | -685 | -655 | -4.58% | ↓ |
| Note: 1. Capacity utilization rate refers to the ratio of production output to total capacity, reflecting production indicators. | ||||
| Note: 2. Production profit margin is industry-level data, reflecting the overall profitability across mainstream regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to average price. |
Last week, domestic ECH prices showed an upward trend. Significant increases in propylene prices last week notably compressed the profit margins for propylene-route ECH producers, weakening their willingness to sell at low prices and highlighting a strong sentiment to hold prices. However, downstream buyers remained cautious regarding high prices, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand and small-volume orders, limiting the release of trading volume. At the start of this week, lacking clear guidance from news factors, proactive offers appear cautious. ECH prices are expected to remain stable, potentially trending slightly higher, but continued attention should be paid to downstream follow-through.
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