Ethylene oxide tightness keeps polycarboxylate monomer prices stable as utilization falls to 30.33%

1. Today's Summary

① Raw Materials: East China ethylene oxide (EO) prices stood at 9,700 RMB/ton; domestic ethylene prices rose to 10,150 RMB/ton.
② Demand: Downstream profitability remains weak, with buyers adopting a cautious approach and replenishing inventory only based on rigid demand.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Price Summary of Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomers (Unit: RMB/ton)

Domestic prices for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers remained stable today. Tight supply conditions in some regions of the ethylene oxide market have not yet eased, with trading driven primarily by rigid demand and EO prices holding steady. Most ethylene production sources from regional producers have been pre-sold through late this month, resulting in continuously tight spot circulation. Many suppliers are withholding offers today, leaving scarce tradable inventory in the market, while downstream enterprises maintain optimistic expectations for ethylene prospects. The fundamentals of the ethylene oxide market remain decent, with rigid-demand orders released in the monomer market, though downstream procurement remains cautious. In summary, the price of EPEG in the leading East China market is expected to range between 10,400–10,600 RMB/ton on the next working day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate for the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry stood at 30.33%, a decrease from the previous period. The gross margin for HPEG monomers was -264 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

On the next working day, domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are likely to remain temporarily stable. Key raw material ethylene oxide is expected to hold steady, as maintenance units have not yet resumed operations, providing support to the market via the supply side. Downstream industries continue to consume based on rigid demand. With insufficient domestic ethylene spot availability and increased acceptance of higher prices by derivative products, ethylene prices may continue to rise, potentially offering cost-side support. Monomer manufacturers are focusing on steady shipments without significant inventory pressure. Meanwhile, downstream buyers are mostly watching market trends with limited acceptance of high-priced goods, leading to transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. In conclusion, the price of EPEG in the leading East China market is projected to be around 10,400–10,600 RMB/ton.

5. Related Products

① Ethylene Oxide (Raw Material): Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, there are no new arrivals in the market, and combined with limited spot outflows from factories in East China, overall supply remains tight. On the demand side, downstream industries are taking deliveries per contract agreements, with low inventory levels and purchasing driven mainly by rigid demand. Regarding upstream inputs, domestic ethylene spot shortages persist, but derivative products show increased tolerance for higher prices, suggesting potential further upside for ethylene prices. Overall, high costs provide strong support for ethylene oxide prices, which are expected to remain firm. Continued attention should be paid to changes in both upstream and downstream sectors.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)