Strong market wait-and-see sentiment; monomer prices remain stable

1. Daily Summary

① Raw Materials: Ethylene oxide prices in East China rose to 9,700 RMB/ton, and domestic ethylene prices increased to 10,350 RMB/ton.

② Demand: Downstream enterprises remained cautious, mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach with limited procurement volumes.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Price Summary of Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomers (Unit: RMB/ton)

Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices remained stable today. The supply tightness in the ethylene oxide raw material market persisted, keeping prices firm at high levels. Currently, ethylene supply within the East China region is exceptionally tight. However, mainstream downstream enterprises in the region are making purchases cautiously. Despite this, overall negotiation sentiment improved, leading to increased transaction volumes for high-priced resources. Fundamentals in the ethylene oxide market provided support, while the monomer market maintained transactions based on essential demand. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remained weak. In summary, the price of EPEG in the main East China market is expected to remain between 10,400–10,600 RMB/ton on the next business day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry was 30.33%, reflecting a month-over-month decline. The gross margin for HPEG polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers stood at -264 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

On the next business day, domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are likely to remain temporarily stable. Key raw material ethylene oxide prices may hold steady, as some plants that underwent short shutdowns might resume operations. Overall market supply is expected to maintain a short-term balanced-tight status. Downstream industries across various sectors will continue essential purchasing. Domestic ethylene spot supplies remain exceptionally tight, and inventories of some derivative raw materials are low; there is a possibility that some buyers may chase higher prices, providing bottom support from the cost side. With raw materials at high levels, monomer manufacturers have a strong willingness to maintain prices. Conversely, downstream users are cautious about raw material procurement, making it difficult to boost short-term purchasing enthusiasm. Transactions will largely depend on volume negotiations. In summary, the price of EPEG in the main East China market is expected to range between 10,400–10,600 RMB/ton.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene Oxide (Raw Material): Ethylene oxide prices are expected to trade stably. On the supply side, facilities undergoing prior maintenance or short shutdowns have not yet resumed production, resulting in no new supply and limited spot resources, maintaining overall tight supply conditions. On the demand side, downstream industries are fulfilling contract obligations, with major downstream players holding low inventory levels. Market activity is primarily driven by essential demand. Regarding supply dynamics, ethylene availability in the East China region remains exceptionally tight. Mainstream downstream enterprises in the region are purchasing cautiously, while some end-users with essential needs are shifting to buy high-priced resources from East China. Overall negotiation sentiment is positive, with increased trading volumes for high-priced materials. In conclusion, high-level cost support maintains stable ethylene oxide prices. Continuous monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is recommended.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)