Ethylene oxide supply tightness lifts PCE monomer prices; capacity utilization falls to 30.33%

1. Today's Summary

① Feedstock: East China ethylene oxide (EO) prices rose to 9,700 yuan/ton; domestic ethylene prices increased to 9,850 yuan/ton.
② Demand: Downstream procurement was primarily driven by rigid demand orders, with cautious stockpiling.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer (PCE) Monomer Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Today, domestic PCE monomer prices edged slightly higher. On the feedstock side, EO market supply provided support, while steady consumption across downstream industries maintained balanced supply and demand, keeping prices stable at high levels. Ethylene spot availability in East China remained tight, with most producers having pre-sold their cargo for mid-to-late November. Supported by tight supply, offer prices continued to rise, while downstream purchases were limited to small volumes of rigid demand. The fundamental outlook for the EO market showed no obvious bearish factors. Consequently, monomer producers generally raised their selling prices, while downstream buyers adopted a cautious strategy, seeking lower-priced opportunities. In summary, the prevailing price range for EPEG in the key East China market is forecasted at 10,300–10,600 yuan/ton for the next working day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate for the PCE monomer industry stood at 30.33%, representing a month-on-month decline. The gross margin for HPEG was -224 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

For the next working day, domestic PCE monomer prices are expected to remain stable or trend slightly stronger. Key feedstock EO prices may maintain stability; previously shut-down units for maintenance have not yet restarted, and some units face short-term shutdown expectations, resulting in tight on-site supply. Downstream consumption remains driven by rigid demand. Currently, ethylene producers are mainly selling via pre-orders, with strong supply-side support leaving room for potential narrow upward price movements, which may provide cost-side momentum. Considering cost pressures and acceptable order backlogs, monomer producers currently lack willingness to discount sales. Some downstream participants are entering the market cautiously to replenish stocks at high prices, leading to volume increases driven by rigid demand, with transactions negotiated based on actual volumes. In summary, the prevailing price range for EPEG in the key East China market is projected at 10,300–10,600 yuan/ton.

5. Related Products

① Ethylene Oxide (Feedstock): EO prices are expected to trade stably. On the supply side, multiple units in East China are undergoing maintenance shutdowns, limiting spot resources and creating overall tight supply conditions; factories are prioritizing contract orders. On the demand side, major downstream users show reduced acceptance of high EO prices and insufficient motivation for proactive restocking, offering little support for price hikes from the demand side. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices remain strong due to tight spot availability. Losses in downstream derivative markets have narrowed slightly, boosting external procurement demand. Overall, supported jointly by the supply and cost sides, EO prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with continued attention required on upstream and downstream developments.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic PCE Monomer Data Overview (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0–3%.