Ethylene oxide prices remain stable.

1. Daily Summary

1. Oct 27: Multiple parties continue to push for a de-escalation of the Middle East situation, easing concerns over supply risks and causing international crude oil prices to fall. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $99.90/bbl, down $1.86/bbl (-1.83% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $113.88/bbl, down $1.93/bbl (-1.67% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (December 2026 contract) fell by CNY 8.1 to CNY 731.6/bbl; the night session fell by CNY 18.7 to CNY 712.9/bbl.

2. Oct 27: The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price quoted in USD was $1,190/tonne, unchanged from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/tonne)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices continued their stable trend today. On the supply side, some units in East China are undergoing maintenance shutdowns, while other units operate steadily. There is no new supply entering the market, leading to tight availability. Downstream industries maintain rigid demand purchasing, with market sentiment remaining relatively cautious. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices have risen. Currently, circulating spot ethylene supply remains limited, supporting producers' quotes as they continue to climb. Overall, contracted supply combined with firm raw material prices supports stable EO prices. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments upstream and downstream.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 53.29%. As of the last business day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was CNY 1,557.89/tonne; the theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene was CNY 1,275/tonne today, representing a decline compared to the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, operating loads of active units are stable, but coupled with maintenance shutdowns in East China, overall supply remains tight. On the demand side, key downstream sectors continue to purchase based on rigid needs, with market sentiment remaining relatively cautious. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices have risen due to limited market supply, fostering a positive buying atmosphere. Overall, support from both the supply and cost sides will keep EO prices stable. Continued monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is advised.

5. Related Product Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Ethylene prices in East China continued to rise, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from CNY 9,400–9,600/tonne, an increase of CNY 100/tonne from the previous business day. Commodity ethylene circulation in the East China region remains limited, supporting producers' rising quotes. Market buying is primarily driven by small-scale replenishment based on rigid demand, mostly consisting of scattered small orders lacking centralized procurement support, resulting in modest overall transaction volumes.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are expected to stabilize or remain in a wait-and-see mode. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, may maintain stability, with manageable supply pressure in the market. Downstream consumption remains steady based on rigid demand, facilitating gradual trading. Limited commodity ethylene supply combined with optimistic derivative expectations suggests potential further upside for ethylene prices, which may provide some cost-side support. Monomer holders are mainly selling steadily, while downstream buyers show reluctance to chase highs and remain cautious in procurement, focusing on small orders based on rigid demand with transactions negotiated based on volume. In summary, the price of EPEG in the key East China market is projected to range between CNY 10,100–10,400/tonne.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical tensions keep crude oil prices high, providing cost-side support for the MEG market. Regarding supply-demand structure, import arrivals were lower than expected, triggering a corrective upward trend in the market. Tomorrow's spot self-pickup price in East China is estimated to be in the range of CNY 5,850–5,950/tonne.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tonnes unless specified)