Ethylene Oxide prices hold steady across regions on tight supply despite weak demand; capacity utilization at 54.11%

1. Daily Summary

1. Nov 3: The US-Iran situation did not escalate prior to the US midterm elections, easing supply risk concerns and causing international crude oil prices to decline. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $96.09/bbl, down $0.37 (-0.38%); ICE Brent futures (January contract) settled at $103.60/bbl, down $1.17 (-1.12%). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) fell by 50.3 to CNY 694.9/bbl in the day session and dropped a further 16.1 to CNY 678.8/bbl in the night session.

2. Nov 3: Portside ethylene spot price (CFR Northeast Asia) held steady at USD 1,230/ton compared to the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable today. On the supply side, units undergoing maintenance have not yet restarted, while other operating facilities remain stable. Limited spot availability in certain regions has kept the supply landscape tight. On the demand side, major downstream sectors maintained rigid procurement rhythms, with market sentiment remaining cautious. Regarding costs, domestic ethylene prices stayed firm at high levels due to tight supply of domestic ethylene; although crude oil prices dipped slightly, this had a limited impact on buyer sentiment. Overall, tight supply supports EO prices, which are expected to trade steadily in the short term. Continuous monitoring of upstream and downstream dynamics is recommended.

(Note: Charts regarding price trends for 2026 and 2025-2026 have been omitted as per instructions.)

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate for the Chinese ethylene oxide industry stood at 54.11%. As of the previous working day, the theoretical profit margin for EO produced using imported ethylene was CNY 1,330.12/ton. Today's theoretical profit margin for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene was CNY 787.5/ton.

(Note: Charts regarding capacity utilization trends and profit/price comparisons for 2025-2026 have been omitted as per instructions.)

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to trade steadily. On the supply side, there are no new spot cargoes available, and limited outflow from factories in East China keeps overall supply tight. On the demand side, downstream industries are purchasing based on contracts, with low inventory levels and transactions driven primarily by rigid demand. Regarding feedstock, domestic ethylene spot supply remains insufficient, but derivatives' tolerance for higher prices has increased, suggesting ethylene prices may continue to rise. Overall, high feedstock costs support firm EO prices. Attention should be paid to changes in both upstream and downstream markets.

5. Related Products

① Ethylene (Feedstock): Outlook for the ethylene market: Although derivative prices generally declined today, domestic ethylene resources remain tight. With decent buying interest from rigid demand, ethylene prices are likely to trend stronger. Mainstream transaction prices in East China are estimated at CNY 10,100–10,300/ton, while Shandong prices range from CNY 10,300–10,500/ton. In terms of USD pricing, the shipping market continues to receive support from the supply side, with prices expected to fluctuate within the USD 1,200–1,280/ton range.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may remain stable. The key raw material, ethylene oxide, is likely to hold steady as maintenance units have not yet restarted, providing supply-side support. Downstream industries maintain rigid consumption. While domestic ethylene spot supply is tight, derivatives' acceptance of higher prices has increased, potentially pushing ethylene prices up and supporting costs. Monomer producers are focusing on steady shipments with no significant inventory pressure. However, downstream buyers are largely observing the market and show limited willingness to accept high-priced cargoes, leading to volume-based negotiations. Consequently, mainstream EPEG prices in East China are forecast to range between CNY 10,400–10,600/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) (Related Product): Signs of geopolitical easing have led to a decline in crude oil prices, triggering a general downward adjustment in chemical commodities. However, MEG supply-demand fundamentals do not show obvious signs of weakening, providing downside support to the market. Tomorrow's spot self-pickup prices in East China are expected to range between CNY 5,600–5,700.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)