Ethylene Oxide costs rise but polycarboxylate monomer prices hold as capacity utilization falls to 30.33%

1. Daily Summary

① Raw Materials: Ethylene oxide prices in East China rose to 9,700 yuan/ton; domestic ethylene prices increased to 9,700 yuan/ton.
② Demand: Downstream markets remained largely wait-and-see, with purchasing activity primarily driven by rigid demand.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Price Summary for Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomers (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Today, the market price of domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers remained stable. The raw material ethylene oxide market saw trading based on rigid demand, with supply and demand relatively balanced across regions. Downstream industries primarily consumed contracted volumes, keeping prices stable at high levels. For ethylene, production sources from East Chinese enterprises have been pre-sold until mid-to-late November, suggesting that the tight market situation may persist and prices could rise, although only limited transactions occurred today. The fundamental performance of the ethylene oxide market was acceptable, with steady shipments of monomers. However, downstream profitability is under pressure, and inventory stocking remains cautious. In summary, the mainstream EPEG price in East China is expected to be between 10,200 and 10,500 yuan/ton on the next working day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry stood at 30.33%, a month-on-month decline. The gross profit margin for HPEG monomers was -234 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

On the next working day, domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are likely to remain temporarily stable. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, is expected to stay firm at high levels. Units undergoing previous maintenance have not yet resumed operation, leading to continued tight supply in certain areas. Downstream industries are steadily consuming inventory, while transactions for ethylene at high prices are generally weak. Sentiment among derivative buyers to chase highs is poor, so prices are expected to consolidate at high levels, with cost factors providing some support. With low inventory pressure for monomers, market participants are showing no obvious willingness to offer discounts. Downstream buyers exhibit some resistance to high-priced goods, maintaining cautious procurement behavior and releasing only orders driven by rigid demand, with transactions negotiated based on volume. In conclusion, the mainstream EPEG price in East China is projected to range between 10,200 and 10,500 yuan/ton.

5. Related Product Status

① Ethylene Oxide (Raw Material): Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, although some units slightly increased load rates, multiple facilities within the market are shut down for maintenance, resulting in overall tight supply. On the demand side, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, with activities mainly focused on rigid demand orders. Market sentiment remains cautious, and transactions are negotiated based on volume. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices continue to rise, while macroeconomic conditions show an overall weakening trend. Acceptance of high prices in the derivatives market is limited, and sentiment to chase highs is becoming cautious. Overall, tight supply and high costs provide underlying support for the ethylene oxide market. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, requiring continued attention to upstream and downstream developments.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)