DOTP Market Experiences Wide-Range Fluctuations (September 2026)

1. Key Focus This Month

a) Production: DOTP output in September reached 167,200 tons, down 5.27% month-on-month.

b) Profit: DOTP producers' margins rose in September. Taking the Zhejiang market as an example, the average monthly profit was 292 CNY/ton.

c) Others: The average price of raw material octanol increased by 11.47% month-on-month, and the average price of PTA increased by 11.38% month-on-month.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Domestic DOP Market Monthly Price Change Table

Unit: CNY/ton

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

The domestic DOTP market experienced wide-range fluctuations this month. Prices surged strongly in the first half of the month, hitting year-to-date highs before pulling back; in the second half, the market rebounded after declining. The mainstream spot quote range was 9,800–10,700 CNY/ton.

The core driver of this month's market was significant volatility in international crude oil prices triggered by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. Cost expectations dominated DOTP price movements, while limited follow-through from end-user rigid demand became the main factor constraining sustained price rallies. In early September, tensions in the Middle East geopolitical situation led to rising international crude oil prices, strengthening the chemical sector. Raw materials for DOTP, namely octanol and PTA, rose simultaneously, providing strong cost support. Downstream users engaged in staged restocking driven by bullish expectations, combined with inventory holders controlling supply volumes and reluctant to sell, leading to tight DOTP spot supply. This pushed DOTP prices sharply higher. By mid-month, positive factors from crude oil were gradually digested. After DOTP prices peaked, end-users showed insufficient acceptance of high-priced goods, and new order transactions slowed. Additionally, the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions caused crude oil prices to fall, dragging down raw material prices and turning the cost side into a negative factor. Bearish sentiment intensified in the market, downstream willingness to stock up ahead of holidays remained weak, and traders executed both long and short positions, causing DOTP prices to decline under pressure. Near the end of the month, renewed geopolitical news disrupted the market again. Crude oil premiums rebounded, lifting chemical products. Traders concentrated on covering short positions, and combined with the release of downstream holiday stocking demand, transaction volumes increased within the market. Industry participants strengthened their stance to hold prices, ending the nearly ten-day downward trend. The September DOTP market ultimately closed on a rising note.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. The theoretical average monthly profit for DOTP enterprises was 292 CNY/ton this month.

2. The average price of raw material octanol rose, and the average price of PTA rose.

4. Next Month Market Forecast

Looking ahead to October, the domestic DOTP market is expected to present a pattern of phased recovery and high-level oscillation. The market will primarily rely on the restoration of rigid demand during the peak season and solid cost support. Overall upside potential faces certain limitations, making it difficult for sustained large-scale price hikes to occur.

On the demand side, October enters the traditional consumption peak season for downstream industries. There is an expectation for steady restoration of end-user rigid demand, which can provide basic bottom support for the DOTP market. However, the pace of downstream demand recovery is slow and its strength is limited. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high-priced goods, procurement remains generally cautious, and most adopt an operation mode of purchasing on demand and restocking on dips. The lack of willingness to actively chase price increases will directly constrain the height of DOTP price rises, resulting in weak sustainability for market rebounds.

The cost side forms strong support for the market, representing the core positive factor for this month's market conditions. In early-to-mid October, industry operating loads for DOTP's core raw material, octanol, are not expected to increase significantly. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains in the geopolitical situation. International crude oil is likely to maintain high levels supported by risk-averse sentiment, driving the overall chemical sector to run stronger and further solidifying DOTP cost support, helping market prices maintain high-level consolidation. Overall, the October DOTP market has certain cost-side positives and steady rigid demand recovery, but the demand shortfall is difficult to make up. The market is expected to operate with high-level oscillations. The mainstream DOTP price in the Zhejiang region is predicted to fluctuate within the range of 9,900–10,500 CNY/ton.

For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information DOTP Monthly Report.