Lead-in: Recurring geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven up international crude oil prices, providing strong support on the cost side. Domestic cracker loads fluctuated, leading to a slight increase in supply of cracked C9. Meanwhile, profitability in downstream sectors weakened simultaneously, with margins for industrial aromatic solvents and C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resins both declining. Downstream buyers resisted high raw material costs, limiting purchases to essential small-volume orders. While rising crude oil prices provide a cost floor, weak downstream demand acts as a constraint. With bullish and bearish factors in a tug-of-war, cracked C9 quotes edged higher, and the market is expected to maintain narrow-range, slightly bullish fluctuations in the short term.
Domestic Spot Market: Quotes generally rose nationwide; regional price spreads remained stable
2025-2026 Cracked C9 Price Comparison (CNY/ton)
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Table 1: Regional Price Comparison of Cracked C9 in China (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracked C9 | Northeast | 6100 | 6000 | +100 | +1.67% | CNY/ton |
| North China | 6050 | 5950 | +100 | +1.68% | CNY/ton | |
| East China | 6012 | 5912 | +100 | +1.69% | CNY/ton | |
| Central China | 6050 | 5950 | +100 | +1.68% | CNY/ton | |
| South China | 6113 | 6013 | +100 | +1.66% | CNY/ton |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
During this period, mainstream quotes for cracked C9 across China generally rose. The national average price was 6,027 CNY/ton, an increase of 95 CNY/ton from the previous period, representing a 0.97% rise. By region, South China held the highest price at an average of 6,113 CNY/ton for the current period. Northeast was at 6,100 CNY/ton, North China at 6,050 CNY/ton, East China at 6,012 CNY/ton, and Central China at 6,050 CNY/ton, with all regions showing varying degrees of upward adjustment. The price spread between North China and East China remained stable at 38 CNY/ton. No sample enterprises in East China are currently undergoing shutdowns for maintenance, so cross-regional arbitrage windows have not opened, resulting in limited inter-regional cargo flow.
Core Drivers: Multi-factor tug-of-war; cost support strengthens while significant contraction in downstream profits limits upside potential
Table 2: Price Comparison Across the Cracked C9 Industry Chain in China (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | 2026/10/29 | 2026/10/22 | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracked C9 | National | 6027 | 5932 | +57 | +0.97% | CNY/ton |
| Industrial Aromatic Solvent | National | 7419 | 7329 | +90 | +1.23% | CNY/ton |
| C9 Petroleum Resin | National | 7236 | 7216 | +20 | +0.28% | CNY/ton |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
1. Cost Side: Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East drive crude oil volatility higher, reinforcing cost support
The market focused on escalating US-Iran tensions and the risk of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities. Although consultations among Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE eased short-term conflict concerns, the market still anticipates that the US may take high-intensity actions against Iran after the midterm elections. Brent crude average prices rose to $114.98/barrel, an increase of $6.39/barrel from the previous period, or 5.88%. The elevated geopolitical risk premium strengthened crude oil, raising the cost floor for cracked C9 and providing positive support for spot quotes.
2. Supply Side: Fluctuations in plant loads boost output; slight increase in supply creates downward pressure
No new plants shut down for maintenance during the week. Stable startup operations at Hainan Refining & Chemical, combined with load fluctuations at multiple ethylene plants, led to a slight increase in cracked C9 production to 62,800 tons. Capacity utilization reached 79.09%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points from the previous period. Plants at Jincheng Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Wanhua Chemical remain in long-term maintenance. Looking ahead, cracked C9 production and capacity utilization are expected to continue seeing slight increases, which will exert some pressure on market prices.
3. Demand Side: Downstream profits weaken simultaneously; purchasing remains driven by essential needs with strong wait-and-see sentiment
Operating rates for the two major downstream products diverged. The capacity utilization rate for industrial aromatic solvents was 51.17%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate for C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resin was 45.76%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points. Supported by rising crude oil and gasoline markets, along with export consumption from vessel orders, industrial aromatic solvent prices trended steadily higher, but theoretical gross margins turned negative at -39 CNY/ton. For C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resin, rising raw material costs squeezed margins, causing theoretical profits to fall to -164 CNY/ton. Downstream buyers remain resistant to high-priced cracked C9 supplies. Traders are mostly negotiating and waiting, with market transactions dominated by small-volume essential purchases. There is a lack of concentrated stocking activities, constraining the room for price increases.
Industry Chain Transmission: Upward cost transmission faces resistance; upstream-downstream bargaining intensifies
Driven by geopolitical factors pushing crude oil higher, cost support for cracked C9 strengthened, and refineries adjusted quotes upward accordingly. However, resistance to passing costs downstream has become prominent. Although industrial aromatic solvents followed price increases in gasoline and competing products, processing profits remain in loss territory. Cost pressures on C9 thermal polymerized petroleum resin have expanded losses further, with end-users having limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials; negotiations often involve discounts. While cracked C9 quotes rose due to favorable crude oil conditions, deteriorating downstream profitability and cautious purchasing have created a tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand.
Summary and Outlook
Overall, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, providing cost support. Domestic supply of cracked C9 increased slightly, while profits for the two major downstream products declined significantly in tandem. Demand stimulation is insufficient, and the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors has intensified. In the short term, the cracked C9 market is expected to maintain narrow-range, slightly bullish fluctuations.
Looking ahead, international crude oil futures still hold expectations for further rises, maintaining cost-side support. Supply of cracked C9 is expected to continue increasing slightly. On the demand side, operating rates for C9 petroleum resin are expected to remain stable, while aromatic solvents will maintain resilience supported by export consumption from vessel orders. However, downstream resistance to high prices is unlikely to ease significantly. The mainstream trading range for cracked C9 is projected to be 6,000–6,300 CNY/ton. Key focus areas going forward include developments in the Middle Eastern geopolitical situation, fluctuations in international crude oil prices, downstream plant operating rates, and the pace of procurement restocking.
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