I. Key Focus Areas (Highlighting Cost Changes, Outlook on Weekly Supply and Demand, and Interspersed Hot Events)
November 6: The market is focused on the risk of renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, although mediators are still pushing for peace talks. International crude oil prices rose slightly.
Propylene Oxide (PO): On the previous business day, the domestic PO market stabilized and showed improvement. Supply-side plants remained largely stable. Today, crude oil rebounded within a narrow range, and some upstream factories reduced supply due to operational fluctuations. As positive news emerged, market sentiment improved, leading to better overall shipments. Some suppliers implemented limited quantity shipping, while downstream buyers shifted from wait-and-see to increased purchasing. End-user demand partially recovered. Regional prices adjusted within a narrow range, with potential for further rebound in the near future.
| Product | Region | Nov 5 | Nov 6 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 4975 | 4900 | -1.51% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | East China | 5200 | 5100 | -1.92% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | South China | 5800 | 5800 | 0.00% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Northwest China | 4325.5 | 4305 | -0.47% |
| Notes: 1. DMC grade is industrial. 2. Unit: CNY/ton. 3. Price basis: Shandong (Acceptance bill ex-factory), East China (Acceptance bill delivered), South China (Wire transfer delivered), Northwest China (Wire transfer ex-factory). 4. Change rate refers to week-over-week change. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data Metric | Release Time | Previous Period Data | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| DMC Weekly Output | Thursday 17:00 PM | 61,700 tons | ↗ |
| PO Weekly Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 68.14% | ↘ |
| DMC Weekly Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 72.77% | ↗ |
| PO Transesterification Method Weekly Profit (CNY/ton) | Thursday 17:00 PM | -301.9 | ↘ |
| Notes: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation (highlighting data points with changes exceeding 3%). 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation (highlighting data points with changes within 0-3%). |
Forecast: On the previous business day, the domestic DMC market continued to decline. Some factories resumed external sales of DMC, resulting in ample overall market supply. Inventory pressure varied among enterprises, with most adopting flexible price reductions to prioritize shipment. On the demand side, end-users primarily purchased based on rigid demand. Market trading activity was sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see attitude prevailing, and overall transaction pace remained slow. Chempricehub believes that the short-term domestic DMC market will remain weak, with focus on raw material costs and individual manufacturers' shipping conditions.
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