1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Cost side: Feedstock ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable throughout the week, providing solid cost support.
2. Supply side: Some units within the monomer sector underwent minor adjustments; overall supply availability changed little.
3. Demand side: Downstream buyers maintained a cautious purchasing mindset, primarily restocking at lower price points.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub

During this reporting period (October 23–29, 2026), polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices rose slightly as genuine demand increased. As of October 29, the mainstream market price for EPEG in East China was 10,350 RMB/ton, up 150 RMB/ton from the previous week. The weekly average price for EPEG in the key East China market was 10,270 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 150 RMB/ton.

Specific regional developments were as follows:

1. East China Market: Plants maintained normal production with relatively stable supply. Manufacturers focused on steady shipments, with many holding undelivered orders. Low-priced inventory decreased, strengthening producers' willingness to maintain prices. Additionally, Shanghai Petrochemical began maintenance on an EO unit, and Yangzhou Oke experienced a short shutdown, reducing EO supply. EO prices held steady, providing bottom-line cost support. Downstream customers purchased strictly based on immediate needs, maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
2. Northeast China Market: Units operated smoothly. Monomer producers had no accumulated inventory, focusing on fulfilling prior orders. Supply pressure was low, leading to slight price increases. Although downstream raw material inventories were not high, resistance to higher prices persisted, resulting in cautious spot purchasing.
3. South China Market: Maintenance units had not yet restarted, so market supply did not increase. With EO prices remaining firm at high levels and downstream projects rushing to meet deadlines, there was certain demand. Monomer producers raised shipping prices, while downstream buyers restocked selectively at lower offers.

3. Market Influencing Factors (Data)

1. Supply Data: During this period, the capacity utilization rate for domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers was 30.33%, down 0.05 percentage points week-on-week. Weekly output was 33,800 tons, down 0.29% week-on-week.
2. Inventory Data: As of Thursday, the sellable inventory rate at domestic monomer factories was -24.86%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points from the previous week. Sellable inventory volume stood at -47,500 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons compared to the last cycle.
3. Cost Data: During this period, the weekly average cost for HPEG in East China was 10,684 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week. The weekly average cost for TPEG was 10,549 RMB/ton, also unchanged.
4. Profit Data: During this period, the weekly average profit for HPEG in East China was -314 RMB/ton, an improvement of 150 RMB/ton week-on-week. The weekly average profit for TPEG was -197 RMB/ton, an improvement of 132 RMB/ton week-on-week.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

1. Supply Forecast: Previously shut down units in the monomer sector are expected to restart, potentially leading to a slight increase in supply.
2. Demand Forecast: Downstream users are likely to maintain essential purchasing, keeping a cautious entry mindset.
3. Cost Forecast: EO price trends may remain stable in the short term, providing potential support for monomer costs.

Overall Outlook: In the short term, polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are expected to remain firm or stable. Market fluctuations will primarily depend on changes in supply-demand dynamics.

1. Supply Side: There is an expectation for previously maintained units to restart, while other units are likely to operate steadily. Overall operating rates may fluctuate slightly. Monomer producers are focused on delivering accumulated orders, keeping inventory pressure manageable. Thus, the supply side is unlikely to drag on the market significantly in the short term.
2. Demand Side: Downstream user inventories have largely been depleted to low levels, creating some restocking expectations. However, bearish sentiment persists, keeping purchasing cautious. Demand lacks strong incremental support, with transactions concentrated on essential needs. Buyers mostly purchase as needed, with few bulk restocking activities. Demand is expected to maintain a pace of essential replenishment.
3. Cost Side: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have entered a diplomatic window, reducing the risk of large-scale conflict in the short term. However, friction between the US and Iran remains, and Houthi attacks continue, meaning geopolitical risks could resurface. Oil prices have strong downside support. Limited available spot resources in the ethylene market and essential procurement by downstream derivatives suggest prices may trade firmly. For feedstock EO, previously maintained units have not yet fully restarted, and some units are scheduled for maintenance, supporting market prices. Fundamentals appear decent, and EO prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Weekly Report by Chempricehub.

Historical Reference: Previous Period Analysis (September 18–24, 2026)

During this period (September 18–24, 2026), polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices declined from highs as market activity cooled. As of September 24, the mainstream EPEG price in East China was 11,450 RMB/ton, down 200 RMB/ton from the previous week. The weekly average EPEG price in the key East China market was 11,866.67 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 691.67 RMB/ton.

Specific regional developments were as follows:

1. East China Market: Most units maintained normal production, with some adjusting loads slightly. Signs of easing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East led to falling crude oil prices, causing MEG prices to drop from highs. Bearish sentiment among market participants increased. While EO spot supply remained tight and prices held firm—providing cost support—resistance to high prices and insufficient future orders hindered transactions. Consequently, monomer prices fell, with new orders limited to small-scale essential purchases, resulting in thin trading activity.
2. Northeast China Market: Enterprises operated steadily. Negative inventory positions remained dominant, indicating no significant supply pressure. Low-priced goods became more available, increasing holders' willingness to sell. Affected by the "buy on rises, not falls" mentality, downstream users entered the market cautiously, mostly waiting on the sidelines.
3. South China Market: Spot resources were scarce. Some enterprises continued to sell high-priced inventory, often offering discounts to close deals. Downstream willingness to buy at high prices was low, with participants sticking to rigid demand due to strong risk-aversion sentiment. The market supply-demand structure remained weak.

3. Market Influencing Factors (Data)

1. Supply Data: During this period, domestic capacity utilization for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers was 26.72%, down 0.29 percentage points week-on-week. Weekly output was 29,800 tons, down 1.00% week-on-week.
2. Inventory Data: As of Thursday, the sellable inventory rate at domestic monomer factories was -33.23%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week. Sellable inventory volume stood at -63,500 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons compared to the last cycle.
3. Cost Data: During this period, the weekly average cost for HPEG in East China was 10,729 RMB/ton, an increase of 485 RMB/ton week-on-week. The weekly average cost for TPEG was 10,549 RMB/ton, an increase of 500 RMB/ton.
4. Profit Data: During this period, the weekly average profit for HPEG in East China was 1,204.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 178.33 RMB/ton week-on-week. The weekly average profit for TPEG was 1,384.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 163.33 RMB/ton.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast (Historical Context)

1. Supply Forecast: Unit loads for monomer producers may fluctuate slightly, but overall operations are expected to remain relatively stable.
2. Demand Forecast: With holidays approaching, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is unlikely to improve significantly; only essential demand will be released.
3. Cost Forecast: EO price trends may remain stable in the short term, potentially supporting monomer costs.

Overall Outlook: High prices for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers may soften next week. Market fluctuations will depend on supply-demand changes.

1. Supply Side: Some units may see incremental output, while others will make minor load adjustments. Overall operating rates are expected to change little. Producers are currently focused on delivering accumulated orders, so there is no immediate supply pressure. However, if price declines persist, new order follow-up will slow, and any supply recovery combined with weak demand would further drag down prices.
2. Demand Side: October remains a traditional peak consumption season. However, if monomer prices trend weakly, downstream users may adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. Insufficient terminal orders later on will dampen buyers' enthusiasm for bulk acceptance. Lack of transaction volume may gradually reveal supply-demand contradictions.
3. Cost Side: The US-Iran situation remains unclear. Supply gaps in MEG persist, suggesting prices may range-bound. EO spot supply is unlikely to loosen significantly soon. Downstream industries maintain essential consumption, while ethylene producers have limited unsold stock amid general demand, leading to stalemate-like price consolidation. Short-term fundamentals for the EO market offer support, and prices are expected to remain stable.