Consolidation at low levels with increasing trading volume

1. Daily Summary

① No plant fluctuations reported today.

② On the raw material side, the mainstream quoted price for propylene oxide from major factories was 11,150 RMB/ton (ex-factory, cash settlement), down by 600 RMB/ton compared to yesterday.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Propylene Glycol (PG) Industry Chain Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the Shandong region, today's PG closing price in Shandong was 8,750 RMB/ton, reflecting a period-on-period decline.

Shandong market prices have fallen back to low levels again; transaction activity has improved slightly compared to earlier periods, with some suppliers holding back inventory and suspending quotes. The East China market is oscillating at low levels, with downstream buyers maintaining a cautious wait-and-see approach. The South China market shows narrow fluctuations, with suppliers actively accepting orders and shipping goods.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for PG is around 60%. Output remains relatively stable with a slight increase, while profitability has declined compared to last week.

4. Market Sentiment

Table 2: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic PG Upstream and Downstream Participants

5. Price Forecast

Looking ahead, on the raw material side, trading activity in the propylene oxide (PO) market may improve in the short term. After pressure eases, prices might stabilize temporarily; terminal feedback should be monitored. In the PG market, cost-driven downward adjustments are chaotic, and quoted prices in major markets have dropped back to staged lows. Additionally, some units plan to shut down at the end of the month. With multiple factors offsetting each other, market sentiment is shifting. Suppliers are reluctant to sell cheaply, and transactions remain primarily driven by export orders, with strong wait-and-see attitudes prevailing. It is expected that PG prices will consolidate amid uncertainty. Continuous monitoring of unit operations and raw material price trends is recommended.

6. Related Product Status

Unsaturated Resin Market: Based on the Jiangsu region, today's unsaturated resin 196# closed at 11,200 RMB/ton, unchanged from yesterday, consistent with morning expectations. The unsaturated resin market remained stable as participants adopted a wait-and-see stance. Early in the week, domestic unsaturated resin plants had no new ex-factory price adjustments. In the spot market, both East and South China regions remained stable and cautious. Cost support has weakened, putting pressure on market sentiment. Inventory holders are selling according to market conditions, while downstream rigid demand follows slowly. Pre-holiday stocking is currently limited, with small-lot transactions dominating.

Polyether Market: Spot quotes for flexible polyethers fell sharply due to negative guidance from the cost side. Buyers entered the market opportunistically to secure contracts, but PO prices may continue to face downward pressure. Manufacturers are actively offering discounts to stimulate sales, while downstream participation remains cautious, focusing mainly on rigid demand purchases. Key attention should be paid to downstream sentiment and raw material news.

7. Data Calendar

Table 3: Domestic PG Data Overview (Unit: Tons)