China OCT prices surge in October on high propylene costs and tight supply, seen staying elevated in November

1. Key Market Highlights This Month

1. Raw material propylene prices surged significantly, causing a cost inversion for 2-ethylhexanol (OCT).
2. OCT supply remained generally tight, with industry inventories at low levels.
3. Downstream demand gradually recovered following the National Day holiday.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Monthly Price Change Table for Domestic OCT Market
Unit: CNY/ton

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In October, the domestic OCT market price center continued to rise, primarily driven by increases in raw material propylene prices. During the National Day holiday, downstream plasticizer units reduced production, leading to a decline in demand and an accumulation of inventory at OCT plants after the holiday. However, propylene prices gradually surpassed previous yearly highs in October, resulting in a cost inversion for OCT. Consequently, the OCT market price center rose relatively slowly in early October. Due to multiple OCT units undergoing scheduled shutdowns for maintenance this month, supply losses were significant. Additionally, downstream users had insufficient spot raw material reserves prior to the holiday, and post-holiday restocking drove OCT plant inventories down to low levels. Combined with strong cost-side support, the OCT market price center continued its upward trend, with prices gradually breaking through previous highs. As OCT prices reached elevated levels, buyers limited their purchases to essential needs only.

3. Factors Influencing the Market

1. Trends in international crude oil and raw material propylene prices.
2. Restart status of OCT production units.
3. Acceptance of high-priced raw materials by downstream plasticizers and end-use industries.

4. Next Month’s Market Forecast

In November, supply and demand in the OCT market are expected to strengthen simultaneously. Operating rates at downstream plasticizer units are projected to increase notably compared to this month, while OCT supply is also expected to rise, keeping the overall market in a state of tight supply. Inventories across the OCT and downstream industrial chain will remain at low levels, with downstream users facing insufficient raw material reserves but maintaining steady essential demand. Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, providing some cost support. Therefore, the domestic OCT market price is forecasted to oscillate at elevated levels in November.

For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Butyral/OCT Monthly Report.