Spot buying interest remains moderate, with prices experiencing a narrow-range decline.

1. Today's Summary

① Propylene supply remains tight, driving a renewed rise in prices.
② Kelur Chemical has reduced the operating load of its 260,000-ton/year acrylonitrile plant by half.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Acrylonitrile Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Based on the ex-tank price at East China ports, today's closing price for acrylonitrile was 12,850 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. Although costs fluctuated, weak spot demand led to a continued decline in market offers.

Regarding production costs, the theoretical calculation for today's acrylonitrile production cost is: 1.05 * Propylene + 0.5 * Liquid Ammonia + 800 = 14,260 CNY/ton, an increase of 314 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day, driven by rising propylene feedstock prices.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate in the acrylonitrile industry stood at 71.6%, with daily output reaching 12,222 tons. The current total installed capacity base is 5.681 million tons/year.

4. Price Forecast

The domestic acrylonitrile market experienced volatile declines. While cost trends remain unstable, downstream buyers are resistant to high raw material prices, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm and moderate transaction activity in the spot market. However, industry inventory pressure is currently negligible, and given the instability on the cost side, there is limited room for further short-term market declines.

5. Related Product Status

Propylene Market: Today, Shandong propylene prices rebounded after a decline. Mainstream closing references were 11,520–11,650 CNY/ton, with an average of 11,585 CNY/ton, up 295 CNY/ton from the previous working day. Transactions at higher individual prices were scarce and excluded from the valuation range. With international oil prices recovering and multiple PDH plants shutting down, circulating supply tightened, boosting market sentiment and prompting suppliers to raise offers. Downstream buying interest was active, with significant premiums in actual bidding transactions, causing the weighted average transaction price to shift substantially upward.

Downstream Operating Rates: The ABS industry operating rate is around 55%, with a capacity base of 11.19 million tons/year; the acrylic fiber industry operating rate is around 70%, with a total capacity base of 860,000 tons/year; the acrylamide industry operating rate is around 57%.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Acrylonitrile Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)