China butadiene stable on Nov 4 as capacity use rises to 63.26%

1. Daily Summary

① On November 4, Sinopec East China ex-works butadiene price remained stable at RMB 15,050/ton; downstream synthetic rubber prices were also stable.

② On November 4, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic butadiene industry was 63.26%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table: Domestic Butadiene Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the delivery price in the Shandong Central region, today's closing price was RMB 15,225/ton, a week-on-week increase of RMB 150/ton. Today, domestic butadiene market prices underwent minor consolidation. External sales resources in the market are tight, providing bottom support to the supply side. Sellers maintained firm offers, making low-priced goods scarce, which pushed the center of gravity for transactions higher. However, major downstream products are trading weakly, increasing resistance to high butadiene prices. Additionally, weakening crude oil prices have reduced cost and demand-side support, limiting upside potential for butadiene, resulting in minor market consolidation. The delivery price range in Shandong Central was RMB 15,100–15,350/ton, while the reference tank truck pickup price in East China was around RMB 14,600/ton.

On November 4, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic butadiene industry was 63.26%, up 0.07 percentage points from the previous working day. Regarding theoretical production profits, on November 3, the Japanese naphtha market continued to decline, while the Sinopec butadiene price remained stable at RMB 15,050/ton. This led to an increase in the theoretical production profit for C4 extraction process butadiene, with the calculated profit for the C4 extraction process reaching RMB 5,173.63/ton.

4. Price Forecast

In the short term, although some plants in the East China region are expected to restart, others are undergoing scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Combined with slightly tight external sales resources in the North China region, traders' willingness to sell at low prices remains weak. Downstream plants are gradually increasing their operating loads, with some maintaining essential purchases of butadiene. However, downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and buying interest has become somewhat cautious. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to fluctuate within a range.

5. Related Products

Synthetic Rubber Market: Today, prices for both cis-butadiene rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) remained stable. In the Shandong market, Daqing BR9000 held steady at RMB 16,550/ton, and Qilu SBR 1502 remained stable at RMB 16,400/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Butadiene Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons, RMB/ton)