1. Key Points

1. Multiple parties continue to push for US-Iran peace talks, easing market concerns over supply risks and causing international crude oil prices to fall. NYMEX WTI crude futures (December contract) closed at $96.46/bbl, down $7.66/bbl (-7.36% WoW); ICE Brent crude futures (January contract, rolled over) closed at $104.77/bbl, down $8.66/bbl (-7.63% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) rose by CNY 17.6 to CNY 745.2/bbl during the day session, but fell by CNY 64.2 to CNY 681/bbl in the night session.
2. As of November 2nd, Singapore naphtha closed at $114.43/bbl, a decrease of $2.14/bbl from the previous trading day.
3. Yesterday, regional prices for cracked C5 from major domestic producers followed an upward trend. Prices in North China increased by CNY 100/ton, while private enterprise prices remained stable. Shandong mixed C5 prices rebounded to CNY 7,930/ton. Residual liquid prices remained below those of raw material cracked C5. In terms of deep processing, low inventory levels of piperylene monomer combined with strong downstream demand continued to drive price increases. Resin prices received cost support, but buyer enthusiasm remained weak.
4. Yesterday, prices for cracked C5 residual liquid rose. Following the rise in gasoline market prices yesterday, sales volumes were sluggish. The market for homogeneous products like mixed C5 strengthened, yet trading sentiment was cold. Although positive market sentiment dominated and cracked C5 residual liquid prices rose, market transaction activity remained poor due to a wait-and-see attitude among traders.
5. Yesterday, the domestic piperylene market remained largely stable with minor localized increases. Tight supply supported sellers in maintaining high prices, but overall downstream operations were relatively weak, with negotiations centered on rigid demand. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from CNY 9,200 to CNY 10,900/ton.
6. Yesterday, parts of the domestic isoprene market saw price increases. Continued tight supply supported sellers' reluctance to sell at lower prices. Downstream SIS faced cost pressure leading to price hikes. Overall downstream demand consisted mainly of existing rigid needs, with passive buying driving transactions at higher prices. Mainstream bid/ask prices in East China ranged from CNY 14,500 to CNY 15,400/ton.
7. Yesterday, domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) prices remained steady. Self-pickup prices ranged from CNY 10,100 to CNY 10,400/ton, primarily supplied to stabilize key clients. Auction prices held at CNY 10,600/ton. Spot availability remained scarce. With downstream usage limited to rigid demand, the market showed signs of stalemate. Rising raw material costs continued to provide support, keeping the market firm.
8. Last week, mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 9,850 to CNY 11,000/ton. Temporary maintenance shutdowns at some units reduced supply volumes, and persistent losses in non-deep-processing directions occurred. However, downstream acceptance was weak, resulting in a stalemate in market trading and mixed price movements.
9. Last week, mainstream prices for adhesive-grade piperylene C5 petroleum resin rose by CNY 200 or remained flat, ranging from CNY 12,000 to CNY 13,600/ton. Mainstream prices for de-cyclized adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 10,800 to CNY 11,200/ton. Raw material shortages led to lower operating loads, with low supply volumes expected to persist until year-end. Furthermore, raw material prices continued to see minor increases. Cost pressures and shortages are being passed down to the downstream sector. Terminal rigid demand maintained volume, leading to prices continuing to rise steadily.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 prices remained temporarily stable; isoprene saw localized increases; piperylene saw localized increases; DCPD prices rose; C5 petroleum resin prices saw sporadic increases.

2. Price Table

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

3. Market Outlook

Crude oil closed significantly lower yesterday, which may exert substantial downward pressure on today's Shandong mixed C5 prices. Additionally, the order-taking rate for mixed C5 during yesterday's intraday session was only 5%, reflecting the weakness in the fuel oil market. With the decline in crude oil, a general wait-and-see sentiment prevails in the industry. Cracked C5 prices remain temporarily stable.

The cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to face downside pressure. Overnight crude oil plunged sharply, leaving room for gasoline market declines. Refinery shipments of homogeneous product mixed C5 were poor yesterday. Although raw material trends remain firm, the terminal market leans bearish. Chempricehub Information predicts that the cracked C5 residual liquid market has room for decline in the near term.

Overnight crude oil prices dropped significantly, dampening trader confidence in entering the market. Gasoline market prices rose yesterday, but trading sentiment was poor. After raising prices, refinery mixed C5 sales atmosphere remained cold. Chempricehub Information predicts that the mixed C5 market will primarily see a downtrend today.

Isoprene is expected to consolidate at high levels. The overall tight supply of isoprene continues to provide support, but with crude oil closing sharply lower and future geopolitical situations uncertain, trader sentiment may shift towards caution. Prices are expected to remain temporarily stable as the market waits and sees.

Piperylene is expected to remain temporarily stable and consolidate. Factories currently have no significant inventory pressure, providing support. However, with crude oil closing lower and overall downstream performance weak, piperylene prices are expected to remain temporarily stable as the market waits and sees.

DCPD is expected to maintain a consolidating trend. In the short term, there is no increase in spot supply, while downstream rigid demand persists despite high costs. Under this supply-demand tug-of-war, consolidation is expected. Today, attention should be paid to the auction by Daqing Huake.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, raw material C5 prices continue to rise, further increasing cost pressures. Moreover, manufacturer spot inventories are scarce in the short term, so manufacturers are likely to continue pushing prices up due to cost pressures. For adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin, downstream peak season demand remains concentrated, supported strongly by costs and reduced supply volumes. Negotiated prices are expected to rise slightly while remaining stable.

4. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)