I. Key Focus Points
Core Logic: Supply and demand fundamentals are strengthening; the domestic butadiene market is expected to trend slightly higher within a narrow range.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 28 | Oct 27 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Central Delivery | 14550 | 14050 | 3.56% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Ex-tank Self-pickup | 14350 | 13750 | 4.36% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1770 | 1710 | 3.51% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 115.32 | 113.88 | 1.26% |
| Cis-Butadiene Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 16700 | 16400 | 1.83% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Unit for CFR China is USD/ton; unit for crude oil is USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices refer to spot prices from the two previous working days prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to period-over-period percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, high crude oil prices provide strong cost-side support. Additionally, scheduled maintenance at plants in certain regions is expected to reduce domestic output, maintaining supply-side support. The bullish sentiment in the market is strengthening, with sellers showing little willingness to lower prices. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises are gradually increasing operating rates as margins recover, leading to expectations of increased procurement demand for butadiene. However, resistance to high prices remains significant. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to operate in a slightly stronger direction within a narrow range.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Period | Expected Trend for Current Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wednesday 17:00 PM | 2.53 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Margin | Friday 17:00 PM | 3507.65 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Friday 17:00 PM | 4.41 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization | Friday 17:00 PM | 66.46% | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Friday 17:00 PM | 10.76 | ↗ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
| Product | Region | Oct 27 | Oct 26 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Central Delivery | 14050 | 14200 | -1.06% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Ex-tank Self-pickup | 13750 | 13815 | -0.47% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1710 | 1700 | 0.59% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 113.88 | 115.81 | -1.67% |
| Cis-Butadiene Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 16400 | 16400 | 0.00% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Unit for CFR China is USD/ton; unit for crude oil is USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices refer to spot prices from the two previous working days prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to period-over-period percentage change. |
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