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Worth adding that downstream formulators rarely switch between the two on price alone. The branched structure changes solubility and flow behavior, so once a customer qualifies isooctadecenoic acid in a lubricant or metalworking fluid, switching costs keep demand sticky. That stickiness, not feedstock, is what really protects the premium.
One practical angle: because branched grades run in campaigns, buyers should watch producer maintenance schedules rather than feedstock indices. A single plant turnaround can tighten the market for months, and spot availability often dries up before price signals even move.
Also note the substitution risk runs one way. A formulator can sometimes downgrade to linear oleic acid if performance tolerances allow, but upgrading from linear to branched is rare without a full reformulation. That asymmetry caps upside during soft industrial cycles.