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Don't assume the correlation is static. When oil-based EG dominates marginal supply, the methanol link weakens. But during coal season or gas restrictions, methanol becomes the price setter. Check which route is marginal before trading the spread.
The real swing factor is coal-to-EG's operating flexibility. Many units can switch to DMC or oxalic acid when EG margins are poor, effectively shrinking supply. Track coal prices and DMC spreads—they often signal EG output changes before official statistics do.