Lead: Domestic rosin prices have recently been consolidating around 11,000 yuan/ton, and with terminal rigid demand trending upward, rosin resin prices have rebounded slightly.
During the week, Masson pine rosin and slash pine rosin prices each rose by 100 yuan/ton, mainly because high pine oleoresin prices quickly pushed rosin prices above 11,000 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, since petroleum resin prices were significantly lower than rosin resin prices, downstream demand was insufficient, and prices experienced a slight pullback.
First, the decline in slash pine rosin prices lowered costs; second, the increase in downstream rigid demand fell short of expectations; and third, petroleum resin price increases were modest, with prices overall holding at 11,000–13,000 yuan/ton, still below mainstream rosin resin prices. As a result, bullish market support was limited, and rosin resin prices only managed to edge up by 100–200 yuan/ton, to 13,200–13,500 yuan/ton.
In the petroleum resin segment, the mainstream price of C5 petroleum resin for adhesives rose by 500 yuan/ton or held flat, reaching 10,000–12,000 yuan/ton; transaction prices for dicyclopentadiene-removed C5 petroleum resin rose by 500 yuan/ton to 9,500–10,400 yuan/ton; and hydrogenated petroleum resin remained at 11,500–13,000 yuan/ton. Supply recovery among petroleum resin producers has been slow, keeping supply tight. However, downstream product prices are difficult to push up, and costs cannot be passed through, which limited the magnitude of price increases.
Overall, rosin is still in its production season, so supply will expand. With terminals holding a bearish outlook, downstream buyers are mostly purchasing on a rigid-demand basis. Moreover, petroleum resin continues to trade below rosin resin price levels, so the substitution effect poses an ongoing bearish factor for rosin resin.
Looking ahead to next week, petroleum resin supply is expected to remain tight, and the negotiation range should continue to move upward. Some downstream users may switch to rosin resin purchases due to shortages, which will drive higher rosin resin consumption. Rosin holders therefore still lean toward raising prices. However, as the Mid-Autumn Festival draws closer, rosin collection may increase by mid-month, making it difficult to strongly support prices. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, rosin resin prices are unlikely to move significantly in either direction and will likely fluctuate modestly around current levels.
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