Why did India's 2.5 million tonne urea tender fail to attract buyers at its target price?
India's spring tender drew over 20 bids covering nearly 6 million tonnes, more than double the volume sought, yet offers landed at 935-959 USD/t on the west and east coasts, with highs near 1,136 USD/t. Two months earlier, comparable RCF tenders cleared at 508-512 USD/t, an 84% jump. The issue was not credibility alone but physical supply. With global gas-based urea accounting for roughly 68% of capacity, and about 20% of LNG transiting Hormuz, feedstock disruption idled Egyptian, Moroccan and Gulf plants. India, with 95% gas-based capacity and 40-50% of imported gas from the Gulf, cut output at three major plants.
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