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Why did India's 2.5 million tonne urea tender fail to attract buyers at its target price?

Priya Kapoor
Published on 2026-08-12

Why did India's 2.5 million tonne urea tender fail to attract buyers at its target price?
India's spring tender drew over 20 bids covering nearly 6 million tonnes, more than double the volume sought, yet offers landed at 935-959 USD/t on the west and east coasts, with highs near 1,136 USD/t. Two months earlier, comparable RCF tenders cleared at 508-512 USD/t, an 84% jump. The issue was not credibility alone but physical supply. With global gas-based urea accounting for roughly 68% of capacity, and about 20% of LNG transiting Hormuz, feedstock disruption idled Egyptian, Moroccan and Gulf plants. India, with 95% gas-based capacity and 40-50% of imported gas from the Gulf, cut output at three major plants.

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  • Yuki Tanaka 2026-08-13 12:28
    The pricing gap is the real story. When the market clears at 750-830 USD/t and a buyer caps bids near 395 USD/t, a no-bid outcome is arithmetic, not sentiment. Watch whether India removes its ceiling entirely next season, because that, not reputation, will determine if cargoes actually move.
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