Downstream buyers show limited willingness to take delivery, prompting a downward adjustment in domestic ammonium sulfate prices.

1. Today's Summary

① International urea prices have declined, reducing end-user acceptance of ammonium sulfate.
② Caprolactam operating rate stands at 71.64%. Independent coking enterprises' operating rate is 71.23%.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ammonium Sulfate Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Taking Shandong coking-grade ammonium sulfate as the benchmark, the transaction price remained stable at 1052 CNY/ton, with moderate purchasing sentiment.

3. Production Dynamics

Currently, caprolactam plant loads are undergoing minor adjustments, with an operating rate of 71.64%. The operating rate for independent coking enterprises is 71.23%. The capacity utilization rate for domestic compound fertilizer producers is 35.80%.

4. Price Forecast

Today, the ammonium sulfate market followed the downward trend. Significant declines in international urea prices have somewhat impacted new order transactions from end-users. Additionally, the release timeline for the second batch of self-regulatory quotas remains unclear, resulting in low market participation. In the short term, the ammonium sulfate market is expected to remain weak and consolidate.

5. Related Products

Urea: Today, the domestic urea market exhibited a weak stalemate pattern. On the supply side, industry operating rates remained high, with daily output exceeding levels seen in previous years during the same period, leading to ample market supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand has entered its seasonal off-peak period; compound fertilizer producers have reduced their operating loads, primarily replenishing stocks on an as-needed basis. Industrial demand remained relatively stable, but overall procurement pace was slow, lacking incremental support. On the cost side, coal and natural gas prices remained firm, providing some bottom-line support for urea prices and limiting further significant declines. Overall, given the fundamental scenario of strong supply and weak demand, short-term trends are likely to continue along a seasonal downward path. However, influenced by multiple factors such as cost support, essential demand, and export disturbances, prices may exhibit narrow-range oscillations and gradual probing downwards, without a basis for unilateral sharp weakening at this stage. Future focus should be placed on the initiation rhythm of winter stockpiling.

Table 2: Domestic Ammonium Sulfate Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions where changes exceed 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions where changes are within 0-3%.