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What is driving fuel oil prices higher than crude, and can Asian ports avoid a supply crunch?

Marcus Hayes
Published on 2026-08-12

What is driving fuel oil prices higher than crude, and can Asian ports avoid a supply crunch?
Fuel oil has decoupled from crude benchmarks in a way rarely seen. While Brent trades near $100 per barrel, Singapore marine fuel has climbed to roughly $140 and Fujairah to near $160, with some grades hitting $175. Singapore low-sulfur bunker prices jumped 76% to almost $825 per ton since the Iran conflict began, far outpacing crude's 40% gain. The root cause is the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which is not only a crude chokepoint but the main export route for fuel oil from Saudi, Kuwait and UAE refineries. Two of the world's three largest bunkering hubs, Singapore and Fujairah, are already extremely tight. Energy Aspects expects a global fuel oil supply gap of 218,000 barrels per day in Q3, versus just 6,000 bpd a year earlier.

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  • Olivier Dupont 2026-08-13 19:08
    The hidden risk here is that fuel oil is the barrel-bottom product nobody watches. Bond investors track Brent, but shipowners actually pay refined product prices. If Asian supply points genuinely run dry, the cost shock hits freight rates and then consumer goods. Watch the Singapore and Fujairah stock draws weekly, not the crude headline.
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