What is driving fuel oil prices higher than crude, and can Asian ports avoid a supply crunch?
Fuel oil has decoupled from crude benchmarks in a way rarely seen. While Brent trades near $100 per barrel, Singapore marine fuel has climbed to roughly $140 and Fujairah to near $160, with some grades hitting $175. Singapore low-sulfur bunker prices jumped 76% to almost $825 per ton since the Iran conflict began, far outpacing crude's 40% gain. The root cause is the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which is not only a crude chokepoint but the main export route for fuel oil from Saudi, Kuwait and UAE refineries. Two of the world's three largest bunkering hubs, Singapore and Fujairah, are already extremely tight. Energy Aspects expects a global fuel oil supply gap of 218,000 barrels per day in Q3, versus just 6,000 bpd a year earlier.
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