Ethylene Tar Market Prices Trend Upward (September 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Month

① The U.S. has hinted that the U.S.-Iran conflict is nearing its end, with multiple parties continuing to push for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

② Iran stated it is not eager to initiate negotiations until relevant conditions are met, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for the time being.

③ Iran proposed a new peace negotiation plan; if accepted by the U.S., the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened quickly, leading to a slight easing of market concerns.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Ethylene Tar Market Price Change Table (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Domestic ethylene tar prices exhibited a continuous upward trend this month. On the cost side, international crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels during the period, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, no new units restarted during the period, and affected by the lightening of feedstocks, ethylene tar output declined compared to the previous period. On the demand side, overall downstream demand growth was limited, with market activity primarily driven by rigid procurement needs. Regarding related products, the price surge in high-temperature coal tar this month boosted market sentiment and strongly propelled the ethylene tar market. Overall, driven by dual positive factors from costs and related product markets, ethylene tar prices rose consecutively in September.

3. Next Month Forecast:

Cost Forecast: International crude oil prices are expected to have room for decline. On the supply side, progress in restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is slower than anticipated, shipping through the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait continues to face harassment by Houthi forces, placing pressure on transit. Additionally, the continued implementation of the U.S. maritime blockade against Iran increases risks of supply disruption. Ukraine's ongoing strikes on Russian refining facilities have forced passive production cuts at Russian refineries, further tightening global crude oil supply. On the demand side, crude oil transport volumes via the two core shipping lanes remain low, and Asian regional refineries plan to phase down processing loads. Institutional expectations for global crude oil demand in the medium-to-long term remain cautious. Furthermore, the peak summer fuel consumption season in the U.S. has ended, and North American refineries are entering maintenance cycles, resulting in an overall weak pattern for crude oil demand. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve completed its rate hike in September; whether rates will rise again in October depends on inflation and employment data released that month. Rising rate hike expectations strengthen the dollar, which will suppress crude oil prices. Geopolitically, there is potential for indirect U.S.-Iran talks to restart, with third-party mediation promoting dialogue. Iran remains vigilant against new U.S. attacks and prepares for confrontation, while also signaling efforts to advance Yemen peace talks. Geopolitical risks persist, but tension levels may cool down. Comprehensive analysis suggests that international crude oil prices in October 2026 have room to decline. The core logic is the possibility of U.S.-Iran negotiations, combined with political pressure from high oil prices driving U.S. interests to lower prices, alongside weak global crude oil demand and a stronger dollar suppressing prices. WTI may trade in the range of $85-96/barrel, and Brent may trade in the range of $98-109/barrel.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast: Due to the rapid rise in domestic high-temperature coal tar prices in September, downstream factories faced unbearable cost pressures, leading to significant bargaining power and negative pre-holiday stocking sentiment. Consequently, high-temperature coal tar prices dropped sharply before the National Day holiday. After the holiday, as downstream deep-processing enters its maintenance season, buying sentiment is expected to remain negative. Moreover, the tight supply-demand situation in the market will ease somewhat, and downstream bargaining pressure will persist. Therefore, the coal tar market is expected to continue trending downward, gradually returning to rationality.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast: With international crude oil prices having room to decline, cost-side support is weak, and overall market trading sentiment remains cautious, maintaining procurement based on actual needs. On the supply side, domestic major refineries provide stable supplies of low-sulfur residue/asphalt, with primary off-takers focusing on coking directions, while marine fuel operators rely mainly on rigid demand. However, tightness in fuel oil raw material resources may still exist, supporting marine fuel costs. On the demand side, shipowner bunkering at ports in October will maintain rigid consumption, with refueling concentrated in bulk replenishments, and most market transactions involving scattered small orders. Downstream marine fuel traders and port bunkering enterprises have strong risk-aversion mindsets, generally adopting a "sales-driven procurement" model. Overall, the demand side becomes the main bearish factor for prices. It is predicted that the average monthly price of Marine 180 CST in October 2026 will be 6,500 CNY/ton, a decrease of 76 CNY/ton from the previous month, representing a drop of 1.16%.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast: Carbon black market prices in October are expected to show a trend of declining first and then rising. Currently, post-holiday new order prices in the raw material coal tar market still exhibit a downward trend, limiting cost support. Consequently, carbon black market prices will continue to follow this decline. However, after tire manufacturers complete their maintenance shutdowns, a new round of procurement demand will emerge. Negotiations for new orders in the market will see narrower declines. Overall, carbon black new order prices are expected to rebound after hitting a low point.

Comprehensive Summary: Next month, international crude oil prices may decline, potentially weakening cost-side support for ethylene tar. On the supply side, the restart times for Yangzi Petrochemical and Hainan Refining & Chemical have been postponed to next month, and Wanhua Chemical plans a shutdown for maintenance in mid-October. While ethylene tar supply is expected to increase next month, the overall market may still present a tight supply pattern. On the demand side, current high ethylene tar prices have triggered resistance from downstream users; demand is expected to slow down next month, maintaining only rigid procurement. Regarding related products, buying interest in the high-temperature coal tar market is weak, with low pre-holiday stocking willingness; market prices are expected to decline next month. In summary, positive factors for the ethylene tar market in October are limited. Influenced by the demand side and related product markets, prices may show a downward trend.

For more monthly market analyses, please refer to the Chempricehub Ethylene Tar Monthly Report.