Introduction: The R22 markets in 2025 and 2026 played out nearly identical scenarios during the critical "Golden September, Silver October" period: prices plateaued at high levels in September before accelerating downward after the October holidays.
Behind these two downturns lay a sudden collapse in demand that quickly broke market momentum. However, the starting points of these two cycles were markedly different. In 2025, R22 prices plummeted from a high of 33,000 yuan/ton in early September to 14,500 yuan/ton in October, representing intense volatility characterized by a "high base and high elasticity." Once the price drop began in October 2025, channel traders stockpiled heavily, leading to significant inventory accumulation and heightened pressure on social stocks in November and December 2025. This batch of high-cost inventory became a persistent "inventory dam" for the 2026 market, causing prices to remain significantly lower than in 2025 with little capacity for rebound. Furthermore, ongoing destocking pressure from channels continued to suppress upward price momentum.
In contrast, 2026 saw R22 prices slide slowly from 23,500 yuan/ton in early September to 20,500 yuan/ton by October 8, reflecting a weak consolidation phase defined by a "low base and low elasticity." Specifically, the decline from 23,500 yuan/ton to 20,500 yuan/ton represented a drop of only about 12.8%, far less severe than the 56% plunge seen in 2025. Since the starting point for the 2026 downturn was already within a low-level consolidation range, the slope of the decline remained relatively gentle even under simultaneous demand-side pressure. Within this weak macro environment (moderate temperatures, heavy rains in South China, naturally shrinking demand, and high social inventories), the October price decline was not accidental but an inevitable outcome driven by three converging variables: high social inventories, shifting end-user demand, and policy-mandated replacements. Consequently, the 2026 decline from a low base exhibited a smaller magnitude compared to the "high-elasticity crash" from a high base in 2025, resembling a gradual, weakening downtrend akin to "boiling a frog in warm water."
While the 2025 and 2026 R22 price curves appear distinct, both followed the same trajectory of "demand stall → price retreat." The key difference is that 2025 experienced a "bungee jump" from highs, whereas 2026 resembled a "slide" from lows. Looking ahead, the true determinant of the R22 market will be the race between channel inventory depletion and end-user replacement. With the high inventories carried over from 2025 combined with the weak environment of 2026, residual R22 supplies are struggling to clear completely. Meanwhile, the accelerated shift in maintenance demand continues to compress the existing market for R22. As destocking and demand contraction occur simultaneously, the central price level for R22 is expected to drift slowly downward amid low-level consolidation, leaving little room for any significant rebound.
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