Weak downstream demand; sell-side activities dominated by inventory holders

1. Daily Summary

2. 10/20: The market continued to assess the prospects of US-Iran dialogue, with supply risk concerns easing slightly and international oil prices falling. NYMEX crude oil futures for November settled at $101.79/bbl, down $1.87/bbl (-1.80%); ICE Brent crude oil futures for December settled at $108.79/bbl, down $0.76/bbl (-0.69%). China INE crude oil futures contract 2612 rose by 8.5 yuan to 727.3 yuan/bbl during the day session, but fell by 32.5 yuan to 694.8 yuan/bbl in the night session.

3. 10/21: Domestic liquid chlorine prices dropped today to 200 yuan/ton.

4. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Dichloromethane (DCM) Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/ton)

Based on the Shandong region, DCM prices in Shandong closed today at 2975 yuan/ton (range: 2950-3000 yuan/ton), remaining stagnant compared to the previous working day. The domestic DCM market remained in a stalemate with consolidation. Industry operating rates maintained around 70%, indicating a relatively loose overall supply. Enterprises flexibly adjusted their quotes based on their own shipment progress and inventory levels. Bearish sentiment was prominent in the market; downstream users and traders were cautious, making small-volume purchases due to insufficient demand momentum, while holders dominated the sales process.

Figure 1: Domestic DCM Price Trend (2022-2026) (Unit: Yuan/ton)

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate of methane chlorides stood at 68.07%. Gansu Juhua has commenced production, and its capacity and output have been included in the statistics. Regarding costs and profits, upstream raw material liquid chlorine prices declined today, as did methanol prices, leading to a decrease in the theoretical cost of methane chlorides. Calculated based on externally sourced liquid chlorine, the daily profit margin for methane chlorides is 356 yuan/ton.

Figure 2: Domestic Methane Chloride Capacity Utilization Rate Trend (2025-2026) | Figure 3: Domestic DCM Profit Trend (2024-2026) (Unit: Yuan/ton)

4. Price Forecast

Currently, methane chloride producers are operating at relatively high rates, resulting in a loose overall supply and gradually rising enterprise inventories. Downstream follow-up demand is insufficient, market transactions are sluggish, and holders are primarily focused on selling off inventory. Looking ahead, the weak supply-demand balance will persist. With a lack of effective support from the demand side, domestic DCM prices may still face some downside pressure. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in market news and fundamentals.

5. Related Product Status

Refrigerant Market: Based on the bulk water market in East China, mainstream fluororefrigerant R32 factories are maintaining high price levels through volume control to protect prices. As of press time, major factories in East China quoted around 65,500 yuan/ton (coordinated domestic and export quotes). Mainstream market quotes in East China ranged from 63,500 to 64,500 yuan/ton, consistent with morning expectations. Channel inquiries for bulk water remain passively low over the long term, with fixed supply guaranteed for major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Recently, quarterly long-term contract negotiations between enterprises and traders have intensified, awaiting finalization of actual orders. Small-package shipments are slow, so source factories are strictly controlling increases in spot inventory. Statistics show that the industry-wide operating load for fluororefrigerant R32 remains near 40%. Factory scheduling and consumption power have further contracted recently, with declining export volumes. Amidst high-level sideways trading of R32, channel holders are seeking opportunities to sell off inventory and reduce stock. Interest in purchasing high-cost sources is weak, as buyers wait for clearer quote signals from major factories. Chempricehub expects that short-term strategies for fluororefrigerant R32 will focus on volume control to maintain prices, with commercial negotiations determining contract prices. Monitor industry plant dynamics and production scheduling rhythms.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Methane Chloride Data Overview (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)