Trading volume within the market remains sluggish, with inventory holders dominating the selling activity.

1. Daily Summary

2. October 19: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict remain unstable, but the US has exempted certain sanctions against Russia, resulting in mixed movements in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI November futures closed at $103.66/bbl, up $2.25 (+2.22%); ICE Brent December futures closed at $109.55/bbl, down $0.31 (-0.28%). China INE crude oil futures contract 2612 fell by 4.2 yuan to 718.8 yuan/bbl during the day session, but rose by 16.8 yuan to 735.6 yuan/bbl in the night session.

3. October 20: Domestic liquid chlorine prices dropped today to 300 yuan/ton.

4. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Dichloromethane Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/ton)

Based on the Shandong region as a benchmark, dichloromethane prices in Shandong closed at 2975 yuan/ton (range: 2950-3000 yuan/ton) today, a decline from the previous working day. The domestic dichloromethane market experienced a significant downward trend today. Industry operating rates remained around 70%, indicating a loose overall supply. Enterprises adjusted their quotes flexibly based on their own shipment conditions and inventory levels. Bearish sentiment was prevalent in the market; downstream buyers and traders adopted a cautious approach with small-volume purchases due to insufficient demand momentum, making sellers the dominant force in moving inventory.

Note: Figure 1 regarding price trends is omitted.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for chloromethanes stood at 68.07%. Juhua Group’s facility in Gansu province has commenced production and is now included in capacity and output calculations. Regarding costs and profits, upstream raw material liquid chlorine prices fell today while methanol prices remained stable, leading to a decrease in the theoretical cost of chloromethanes. Based on externally sourced liquid chlorine, the daily profit margin for chloromethanes was estimated at 228 yuan/ton.

Note: Figures 2 and 3 regarding utilization trends and profit margins are omitted.

4. Price Forecast

Currently, operating rates among chloromethane producers have increased slightly, resulting in a loose overall supply situation. Downstream purchasing momentum remains weak, and market transactions are sluggish, with sellers dominating the flow of goods. Looking ahead, the domestic dichloromethane market is expected to retain some downside potential. Attention should be paid to future developments in market news and fundamentals.

5. Related Products Status

Refrigerant Market: Taking the bulk water market in East China as a benchmark, major fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 factories maintained high-level pricing strategies, controlling volumes to support prices. As of press time, mainstream large manufacturers in East China quoted at approximately 65,500 yuan/ton (coordinated domestic and export quotes). Mainstream market quotes in East China ranged from 63,500 to 64,500 yuan/ton, aligning with morning expectations. Channel inquiries for bulk spot goods have been passively stagnant for a long period, primarily serving fixed supply contracts for main original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Recently, quarterly long-term agreement negotiations between enterprises and commercial dealers are ongoing, with actual orders pending confirmation. Small-package sales velocity is slow, prompting source factories to strictly control increases in spot inventory. Statistics show that the overall industry operating load for R32 remains near 40%. Recently, factory production schedules and consumption forces have contracted further, and export volumes have declined. Amidst the sideways trading at high levels, channel holders are seeking opportunities to sell off inventory. Buyers show little interest in purchasing high-cost inventory and are waiting for clear quote signals from mainstream large manufacturers. Chempricehub predicts that short-term R32 strategy will focus on volume control to maintain prices, with contract pricing under negotiation. Monitor industry plant dynamics and production scheduling rhythms closely.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Chloromethane Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)