Weak downstream demand and a declining market trend

1. Today's Summary

① On September 21, Sinopec East China lowered its ex-factory price for butadiene by 200 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton. The downstream synthetic rubber market showed mixed trends with prices rising and falling.

② On September 21, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic butadiene industry stood at 65.47%, remaining stable compared to the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table: Domestic Butadiene Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Taking the delivered price in the Shandong Central region as the benchmark, today's price closed at 13,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Today, the domestic butadiene market weakened slightly. Demand from downstream enterprises remained weak, increasing cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Follow-up buying interest for butadiene was generally moderate. Although high crude oil prices provided some support for sellers' firm quoting intentions, strong resistance from downstream buyers against high prices led to lower actual transaction volumes, causing the market trend to decline. Delivered prices in the Shandong Central region ranged from 13,600 to 13,750 yuan/ton, while tank truck pickup prices in East China referenced 13,100 to 13,200 yuan/ton.

On September 21, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic butadiene industry was 65.47%, stable compared to the previous working day. Regarding theoretical production profits, on September 20, there was no data available for the Japanese naphtha market; Sinopec's butadiene price remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton, and there was no data available for the theoretical production profit of butadiene extracted from C4 streams.

4. Price Forecast

In the short term, restarts of domestic plant units have slightly alleviated the tight circulation of spot resources. Concerns about future supply within the market have eased somewhat, providing limited support or guidance for prices. Coupled with the lack of significant improvement in downstream demand, trading sentiment remains weak, which may drag down market trends. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will oscillate in a weak range.

5. Related Products

Synthetic Rubber Market: Today, prices for butadiene rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) showed mixed movements. In the Shandong market, Daqing BR9000 prices rose by 50 yuan/ton to 15,050 yuan/ton, while Qilu SBR 1502 prices fell by 100 yuan/ton to 15,300 yuan/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Butadiene Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons, Yuan/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%.