1. Key Points

1. Geopolitical conflicts remain fraught with uncertainty, providing continued cost support for crude oil and naphtha.
2. Downstream users exhibit strong resistance to high raw material prices.

Core Logic: Downstream follow-through on high-price transactions remains weak, continuing to suppress the market. The domestic butadiene market is expected to primarily trade within a range.

2. Price Table

Notes:

1. Units for CFR China are USD/ton; units for crude oil are USD/barrel. All other units are CNY/ton.
2. Prices represent spot prices from the two preceding working weeks relative to this week, not weekly averages.
3. Change rate refers to the period-over-period percentage change.

3. Data Table

Notes:

1. Capacity utilization reflects production levels, defined as the ratio of actual output to total capacity for producing enterprises.
2. Weekly output represents the total production volume of sample enterprises for the current week.
3. Production profit is calculated based on theoretical margins for the C4 extraction process.

4. Market Outlook

In the short term, geopolitical conflicts remain highly uncertain, maintaining cost-side support from crude oil and naphtha. Additionally, downstream plants are gradually restoring operating loads, leading to expectations of increased demand for butadiene, which provides some directional guidance for the market. However, downstream users show strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, and transaction volumes at elevated price levels remain modest, continuing to weigh on the market. Consequently, the domestic butadiene market is expected to primarily fluctuate within a specific range.

5. Data Calendar

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%.