Lead: Before the May Day holiday, high-olefin C5 inventories at northwestern refineries were smoothly reduced. During the holiday, the market strengthened steadily. As of May 8, the average price in the northwestern market was 6,475 yuan/ton, up 247 yuan/ton from the end of April, an increase of 4%.

I. Review of the High-Olefin C5 Market in the Northwest

During this period, the spot market for high-olefin C5 in the northwestern region first stabilized and then rose, with prices fluctuating in the range of 6,409–6,443 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices fell sharply. Refineries in Shandong reduced prices to promote sales of refined oil products, but end-user demand was weak, inventory digestion was slow, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Within the week, the northwestern high-olefin C5 market first stabilized and then rose. During the May Day holiday, most refineries maintained stable prices while executing contracts. As the holiday neared its end, despite a bearish market sentiment, prices of northwestern high-olefin C5 edged up amid a phase of restocking. Traders and downstream plants actively entered the market, appropriately chasing higher prices.

II. International Crude Oil Price Comparison

Table 1 Comparison of International Crude Oil and Related Product Prices (USD/barrel)

| Product | Apr 29 | May 8 | Change |
|---------|--------|-------|--------|
| WTI | 105.07 | 94.81 | -10.19 |
| Brent | 114.01 | 100.06| -13.95 |

Source: chempricehub

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained a major factor influencing international oil prices. After the May Day holiday, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks progressed, easing concerns about supply risks, and international oil prices fell.

III. Price Comparison of Northwestern High-Olefin C5 and Related Products

Table 3 Price Comparison of Northwestern High-Olefin C5 and Related Products (yuan/ton)

| Product | Apr 30 | May 8 | Change |
|----------------|--------|--------|--------|
| 92# Gasoline | 7,918 | 7,813 | -105 |
| Toluene | 6,925 | 6,750 | -175 |
| Xylene | 7,020 | 6,875 | -145 |
| Mixed C5 | 5,240 | 5,120 | -120 |
| High-Olefin C5 | 6,172 | 6,418 | +246 |
| MTBE | 6,480 | 6,375 | -105 |
| Alkylate | 8,600 | 8,500 | -100 |

Source: chempricehub

The sharp decline in international crude oil prices, combined with loose supply-demand dynamics in the domestic refined oil market, a downward adjustment in the pricing mechanism, and heightened bearish sentiment, collectively pressured gasoline prices at Shandong independent refineries downward. Under the reverse pressure from refined oil products, all related products showed a downward trend. Only from late April to early May, supported by pre-holiday stockpiling, prices briefly edged up. Among them, northwestern high-olefin C5, affected by regional factors, saw its price recovery delayed during the May Day holiday as downstream staged restocking occurred later.

IV. Post-Holiday Forecast

In May, from the supply-demand perspective of northwestern high-olefin C5, there is no significant change in market consumption. Overall domestic gasoline inventory is under considerable pressure. Earlier rumors of export volumes have had limited impact on improving the current situation, and the gasoline market remains under pressure. Current end-user consumption is significantly suppressed by high oil prices, and without additional holiday demand support, the market still faces downward pressure. Dragged down by demand, the high-olefin C5 market is expected to be more prone to declines than gains in mid-to-late May, operating weakly overall.