Trading sentiment is subdued, with ECH trending weakly downward.

1. Daily Summary

① Glycerin prices remained largely stable with minor fluctuations; the price for 99.5% glycerin in East China ranged between 8,800–9,000 CNY/ton (delivered to surrounding areas).

② ECH prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the Jiangsu market price stood at 11,200–11,300 CNY/ton (delivered via acceptance bill).

③ Cost support weakened as downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, leading to a weak, narrow-range adjustment in epoxy resin prices.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic ECH Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Based on the Jiangsu region, today's ECH price closed at 11,250 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period and consistent with morning expectations. Today, ECH prices exhibited a trend of slight downward movement within a narrow range. Currently, cost support has diminished, compounded by difficulties in selling high-priced inventory, causing manufacturers to lack confidence in the future market outlook and gradually show willingness to offer discounts to move goods. However, downstream consumers are primarily utilizing contracted inventory, participating cautiously in new orders, resulting in relatively quiet trading activity and limited transaction volumes.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, domestic ECH plants maintained low-load operations, with industry capacity utilization hovering around 44%. The production cost for propylene-based ECH was 9,907 CNY/ton, yielding a daily profit of 993 CNY/ton. In contrast, the production cost for glycerin-based ECH was 11,900 CNY/ton, resulting in a daily loss of 650 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Today, domestic ECH prices declined slightly within a weak narrow range. Although cost support remains present, limited downstream participation has put pressure on manufacturers' ability to sell at high prices. Lacking confidence in the future market, producers are increasingly willing to offer discounts on new orders, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand small-volume purchases. Amid the supply-demand tug-of-war, domestic ECH prices are expected to continue their weak downward trend in the coming days.

5. Related Product Updates

Epoxy Resin Market: Based on the East China region, today's ex-works price for liquid E-51 epoxy resin (net water basis) closed at 15,000–15,200 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In the Huangshan region, the cash spot price for solid E-12 epoxy resin (surrounding area delivery) closed at 14,400–14,800 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day and consistent with morning market expectations. Raw material prices continued to weaken; however, epoxy resin manufacturers still showed willingness to maintain prices. Actual downstream order follow-up was average, keeping the market center temporarily stable.

Glycerin Market: Based on the East China region, today's delivered price for 99.5% glycerin closed at 8,900 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. Shipping costs were referenced at approximately 150 CNY/ton, which was generally in line with morning expectations. Today, the domestic glycerin market traded within a consolidated range. Downstream operating rates remained at low levels, limiting incremental demand for glycerin. Buyers entered the market cautiously, mostly maintaining rigid demand procurement. Sellers negotiated to move inventory, but positive market supports were limited, leading to range-bound consolidation. In the short term, with epoxy resin prices falling again, downstream buyers tend to procure raw materials at lower prices. As sellers face difficulties moving stock, expectations for low-priced supply in the market may increase, weakening the negotiation focus. Consequently, the domestic glycerin market is predicted to trend slightly weaker while remaining broadly stable.

Table 2: Domestic ECH Data Overview (Unit: CNY/ton)