Tight supply and high costs continue to drive aniline prices upward.

Lead-in: Before the National Day holiday, the aniline market trended strongly upward, driven by continued rises in upstream pure benzene prices at month-end and steady demand progress, resulting in good sales for aniline. After the holiday, although some maintenance units postponed their restarts, pure benzene prices surged significantly, pushing the aniline market higher.

During the National Day holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated within a range, while northern production enterprises enjoyed smooth sales. On the first day after the holiday, the pure benzene futures market experienced a strong catch-up rally, with the main contract hitting the daily limit up rapidly. The US military's preparation to resume major military actions against Iran suggests that geopolitical tensions may further escalate, leading to continued rises in international oil prices. This provided strong support for pure benzene. Additionally, Chinese refineries have gradually implemented defensive load reductions, causing supply recovery to fall short of expectations. Some factories worry that high oil prices will lead more refineries to join in reducing production or lowering loads, further exacerbating supply concerns. Post-holiday inventory levels at East China ports declined, and absolute port inventories remained low, limiting spot circulation. Domestic pure benzene operating rates decreased month-on-month. On the demand side, downstream inventories of pure benzene raw materials were at low levels; even though styrene operating rates declined, overall demand remained stable.

In the final week before the holiday, the domestic aniline market operated strongly, with the price center shifting upward again. From a supply perspective, Shandong Jinling’s scheduled shutdown for maintenance was confirmed, and subsequent maintenance plans for Shanxi Tianji and Jilin Xuyang Kangnai'er were finalized, further intensifying market concerns about tight spot availability and creating a bullish atmosphere. Demand performance was divergent: although some end-user tire enterprises planned to reduce loads or close during the National Day holiday, key downstream auxiliary chemical plants maintained relatively stable operations, so domestic demand did not show obvious collapse. In contrast, the export market was suppressed by high domestic prices, making negotiations for new orders somewhat stalemate-like. Regarding cost logic, the raw material pure benzene broke through its yearly highs, providing solid bottom support for aniline.

From the perspective of price transmission along the industrial chain, upstream products actively followed crude oil price increases after the holiday, while aniline and its downstream products lagged behind in following suit. Due to their respective supply and demand dynamics, price fluctuations varied across different products.

Table 1: Aniline Industrial Chain Price Comparison (Unit: CNY/ton)

It is worth noting that aniline and its downstream products typically follow raw material price increases with a time lag, as end-user industries require more time to absorb upstream raw material cost hikes.

Table 2: Domestic Aniline Plant Maintenance Schedule

Regarding facilities, multiple large-scale units are undergoing maintenance in October, reducing spot supply by 32,000 tons. This is the core driver behind the recent upward trend in the aniline market. Currently, no maintenance plans have been announced by domestic downstream users, keeping internal demand basically stable. Therefore, with reduced supply and stable demand, the aniline market is expected to continue rising.

The changes in supply-demand gaps over the next three months will primarily depend on variations in supply-side output and export volumes. For October, there is a clear expectation of reduced domestic spot supply. The commissioning progress of newly invested units remains unclear, and the forecast for October is relatively conservative. The supply-demand gap in October may turn negative amid strong domestic demand and robust exports. As maintenance units restart and new units produce qualified products entering the market, domestic aniline spot supply and demand will restructure, with spot supply likely facing pressure; thus, November expectations are weaker. By December, with synchronized maintenance across upstream and downstream units and lower-priced aniline becoming more competitive, the supply-demand gap is expected to return to negative territory.

On the pricing front, aniline spot prices in October are expected to maintain a tight balance. Sinopec Nanjing Chemical Branch Zhangzhou’s 300,000-ton unit has postponed its commissioning, maintaining the expectation of tight supply in October. On the demand side, no maintenance has been reported among domestic downstream users, but export demand is expected to decline, leading to an overall decrease in demand volume and causing the supply-demand gap to shift from negative to positive. On the cost side, pure benzene prices in October are expected to start low and move higher, providing solid cost support. Consequently, aniline prices in October are projected to consolidate between 14,000–16,000 CNY/ton. In November, as maintenance ends and units return to operation alongside new capacity entering the market, aniline prices are expected to retreat from highs. Following price declines, actual export orders and domestic demand are expected to respond positively. By December, aniline prices are anticipated to rebound from lows. The average price is forecasted to be around 15,000 CNY/ton in October, 11,000 CNY/ton in November, and 10,000 CNY/ton in December.