The procurement price of alumina has been lowered, and prices in northern Shandong are expected to follow suit with a decline tomorrow.

1. Today's Summary

1. On October 21, 2026, the cash flow for chlor-alkali was 14 CNY/ton.
2. Major alumina manufacturers in Shandong reduced their procurement price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda by 10 CNY/ton effective October 22, bringing the ex-factory price to 560 CNY/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Liquid Caustic Soda Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Using the Shandong region as a benchmark, the mainstream average price for 32% caustic soda today is 610 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from the previous period. Prices in the Southwest and North Shandong regions declined, while the West Shandong region saw a moderate upward shift. Currently, the local mainstream negotiation range for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda in Southwest Shandong is 580–620 CNY/ton, with a weighted average of 601 CNY/ton (down 6). In the West Shandong region, negotiations are at 600–620 CNY/ton, but the weighted average rose by 2 to 604 CNY/ton. Cash self-pickup negotiations in South Shandong are at 600–610 CNY/ton. Mainstream prices in Binzhou and Dongying (North Shandong) are 585–625 CNY/ton, with high prices in Dezhou shifting moderately downward. Prices for 50% caustic soda in Dongying remain stable at 960–980 CNY/ton; while higher prices in other parts of Shandong are quoted at 990–1000 CNY/ton, they are gradually converging toward the mainstream levels. (Unit: CNY/ton)

3. Futures-Spot Basis

The liquid caustic soda basis in Shandong is 208 CNY/ton; the spread in Jiangsu is 411 CNY/ton.

Table 2: Basis at Key Delivery Locations (CNY/ton)

4. Production Dynamics

Today in Shandong, both alkali and chlorine prices decreased, resulting in a chlor-alkali profit margin of 14 CNY/ton.

5. Price Forecast

Recently, liquid caustic soda prices in southern Shandong have been declining successively. Although most northern regions remained stable, actual negotiation centers are slowly drifting downward. Following the reduction in alumina procurement prices, it is estimated that base prices for most liquid caustic soda brands in northern regions will follow suit and drop tomorrow.

6. Related Products Status

Alumina Market: Affected by high cost pressures, tight domestic bauxite supply, and periodic production line technical upgrades, capacity utilization rates for some alumina enterprises have recently declined. There is potential for increased fluctuations in supply due to future production cuts and maintenance. Some traders have narrowed the discount relative to previous periods. Downstream users are primarily focusing on low-price restocking. Short-term alumina prices are expected to maintain a steady-to-weak trend.