Maintenance-Driven Volatility in Soda Ash Prices (October 2026)

I. Key Market Focus This Month

• October soda ash production by enterprises reached 2.8419 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 117,000 tons or 3.95%.
• The capacity utilization rate for soda ash enterprises in October was 68.40%, down 4.09% month-on-month.
• Total inventory at soda ash manufacturers stood at 1.3689 million tons at the end of October, a month-on-month decrease of 390,400 tons or 22.19%.

II. Monthly Market Analysis

Soda Ash Price Change Table (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In October, the domestic soda ash market trended steadily with relatively firm prices, though some slight softening occurred. On the supply side, maintenance shutdowns continued, keeping production at low levels and resulting in a significant drop in supply. Towards the end of the month, as maintenance ended gradually, supply increased slightly. On the demand side, downstream demand remained average, primarily driven by immediate needs, with weak procurement sentiment. Falling futures prices created an arbitrage opportunity between futures and spot markets, leading to increased transaction volumes. Enterprise inventories dropped significantly due to order fulfillment and reduced production. Export performance remained stable, although freight costs had a notable impact. New order transactions were average, with some enterprises adjusting prices downward quietly. Recently, the ammonium chloride market performed well with rising prices. Meanwhile, coal prices fluctuated at high levels, keeping costs elevated.

III. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. Enterprises undergoing maintenance resumed operations, with few new shutdowns announced.
2. Prices of raw materials and fuels rose.
3. Downstream demand was weak, with buyers purchasing only necessary quantities.
4. Arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices led to outflows from delivery warehouses, impacting the spot market.

IV. Next Month Market Forecast

1. Cost Forecast: Coal prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, while raw salt prices remain stable. Overall cost changes will be minor but slightly higher compared to previous periods.
2. Supply Forecast: As maintenance concludes, supply is expected to increase, with daily output potentially recovering to over 100,000 tons, peaking around 105,000 tons. With few new shutdowns planned, supply is expected to remain relatively stable.
3. Demand Forecast: Downstream demand is expected to remain average, with little overall improvement likely. Downstream finished product and capital pressures persist, leading to strict control over raw material purchases, with strong sentiment to buy at low prices and wait-and-see at high prices.
4. Comprehensive Forecast: In November, the domestic soda ash market is expected to trend volatilely to slightly weaker, with narrow price adjustments due to lack of driving forces.