The methanol market maintained a bullish trend today, with futures prices consolidating at elevated levels.

1. Key Focus Points

① Inner Mongolia Rongxin: Today’s methanol auction started at 3,120 CNY/tonne for a volume of 2,000 tonnes and was fully sold out at 3,210 CNY/tonne.

② Acetic Acid: Shengyuanda’s 1.5 million tonne/year unit has begun production.

2. Daily Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/tonne)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Daily Commentary] Today’s domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,460.31 (+71.98). Specifically, Taicang spot prices were 4,017 (+37), and Inner Mongolia North Line prices were 3,247.5 (+87.5). According to Chempricehub monitoring of 20 major cities, prices rose in 15 cities by varying degrees, with increases ranging from 10 to 150 CNY/tonne. The domestic methanol market continued its bullish trend today; futures held firm, causing port prices to rise accordingly. Buyers followed up on rigid demand, while the daily basis weakened slightly. Production and sales markets in inland regions showed fluctuating upward trends. Currently, upstream enterprise inventories remain low and manageable. Reports indicate that domestic cargo continues to be aggregated at ports, supported by trade replenishment orders and downstream rigid procurement. Overall supply-demand balance in inland regions remains relatively stable, suggesting the market will likely maintain a bullish trajectory in the short term. Additionally, monitor the pace of restarts from maintenance shutdowns and the commissioning progress of new units in Ningxia.

3. Basis

In the afternoon session, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures fluctuated. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,195 CNY/tonne, reaching a high of 3,243 CNY/tonne and a low of 3,160 CNY/tonne, closing at 3,219 CNY/tonne, up 67 CNY/tonne from the previous trading day’s settlement. As of the close, open interest for the MA2701 contract was 885,600 lots, a decrease of 45,900 lots compared to the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2 Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, the domestic methanol market continued its bullish performance. Futures held firm, leading to corresponding increases in port prices as buyers met rigid demand, though the daily basis weakened slightly. Inland production and sales markets exhibited fluctuating upward trends. Current upstream inventories are low and manageable. With reports indicating ongoing aggregation of domestic cargo at ports, combined with support from trade replenishment orders and downstream rigid procurement, the overall supply-demand balance in inland regions remains relatively stable. The market is expected to maintain a bullish trajectory in the short term. Furthermore, attention should be paid to the pace of restarts from maintenance projects and the commissioning progress of new facilities such as those in Ningxia.

7. In the medium to long term, facing high post-holiday methanol prices, some mainstream downstream enterprises have halted operations, significantly alleviating the tight supply situation in the methanol market. Additionally, with the expected arrival of ships in November, port inventories are projected to increase. Regional methanol prices are expected to fluctuate within narrow ranges as market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach. Currently, it remains crucial to monitor the impact of supply-demand dynamics following this tug-of-war in the methanol market.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3 Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Industry Participants

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products

Glacial Acetic Acid: Today, glacial acetic acid prices declined in certain local markets. Factories in Northwest China lowered prices, while major factories in Shandong raised theirs. Market trading sentiment varied; some offers continued to drop, but factory shipments improved compared to yesterday. Monitor changes in industry participant psychology. Chempricehub Information predicts that glacial acetic acid prices may rise locally in the short term.

Formaldehyde: Today, the formaldehyde market stabilized and consolidated. Raw material methanol prices surged significantly, increasing cost pressures. Formaldehyde plants maintained steady daytime shipments, and downstream digestion was good. As costs strengthened, bullish sentiment gradually emerged in the market. Chempricehub Information predicts that the formaldehyde market has room for upside movement in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): Today, the DME market operated steadily. Continuous rises in raw material methanol prices strengthened costs. Coupled with reduced internal supply, this injected upward momentum into the market, which had been consolidating at high levels. The market currently maintains stable pricing, with downstream purchases driven primarily by rigid demand. Traders remain cautious and watchful. Chempricehub Information predicts that the DME market will continue with stable pricing in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4 Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tonnes)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with fluctuations exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with fluctuations within 0-3%.