The methanol market continued its downward trend today, with improved transaction volumes for low-priced cargoes in inland regions.

1. Key Focus Areas

① Shanxi Jinding Lubao Methanol Auction: A starting price of 3,250 RMB/ton was set for a total volume of 6,900 tons. Ultimately, 100 tons were sold at 3,260 RMB/ton and 5,951 tons at 3,250 RMB/ton; the remainder failed to sell (no bids met the reserve).

② Tianjin Soda Ash Plant's glacial acetic acid unit (capacity: 350,000 tons/year) has postponed its restart.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Daily Commentary] Today’s methanol spot price index stood at 3,473.30, down by 155.96 points. Specifically, Taicang spot prices fell to 3,845 (-230), and Inner Mongolia North Line prices dropped to 3,325 (-55). According to Chempricehub monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, 18 cities experienced declines ranging from 55 to 590 RMB/ton. Domestic methanol markets continued their downward trend today. Futures prices declined, and port basis weakened further before stabilizing slightly with minor rebounds in the afternoon. Given the tight supply of near-term spot goods, attention should be paid to the pace of buying interest entering the market. Over the past two days, inland regional prices have seen significant pullbacks. As some producers lowered prices to relatively low levels, traders began replenishing stocks, and downstream procurement gradually followed suit, leading to improved transactions for lower-priced cargoes. In the short term, markets are expected to stabilize and trade within narrow ranges. Additionally, continue to monitor changes in freight costs and upstream inventory fluctuations.

3. Basis Analysis

Afternoon trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange saw methanol futures maintain weak momentum. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,255 RMB/ton, reached a high of 3,278 RMB/ton and a low of 3,193 RMB/ton, closing at 3,235 RMB/ton, which is 22 RMB/ton lower than the previous day’s settlement price. By close, the open interest for the MA2701 contract stood at 766,200 lots, a decrease of 7,200 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, domestic methanol markets continued to decline. Futures prices fell, and port basis weakened further before showing slight stabilization and rebound attempts in the afternoon. With near-term spot supply remaining tight, watch the rhythm of buyer entry. Inland regional prices have pulled back noticeably over the last two days. As some enterprises lowered prices to relative lows, trader restocking and downstream procurement have gradually followed, improving transactions for low-priced cargoes. Short-term outlook suggests markets will stop falling and consolidate within narrow ranges. Monitor freight cost changes and upstream inventory fluctuations closely.

7. Medium-to-long term: Facing post-holiday high methanol prices, some mainstream downstream enterprises have shut down operations, significantly alleviating supply tightness in the methanol market. Furthermore, as vessel arrivals are expected in November, port inventories are projected to rise. After substantial price drops across regions, market participants have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Attention remains focused on the market impact following the supply-demand tug-of-war.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Practitioner Sentiment Expectations

7. Related Product Status

Glacial Acetic Acid: Today, the factory market for glacial acetic acid moved lower. Factory prices remained largely stable. Plants in Henan and Tianjin are currently shut down, while key units in East China have restarted. Production fluctuations at plants are frequent. However, influenced by raw material trends and poor sentiment among downstream buyers regarding procurement, traders’ offers have gradually declined. Chempricehub predicts that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to retreat locally in the short term.

Formaldehyde: Today, the formaldehyde market center shifted lower. Raw material methanol continued to fall. Due to loosening cost support, formaldehyde factories reduced product selling prices to align with the market. Based on many pending orders from previous periods and low current inventory, the decline was relatively rational. Intraday buying activity was weak, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among practitioners. Chempricehub predicts that the formaldehyde market will fluctuate at lower levels in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): Today, the DME market ran steadily. Cost support weakened as raw material prices tightened. DME holders mostly maintained stable prices while waiting and watching. Downstream users maintained small-volume essential purchases. Market inquiries were flat, and overall transactions were lackluster. Chempricehub predicts that the DME market will consolidate sideways in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)