Methanol futures and spot markets show divergence, with the market undergoing short-term narrow-range consolidation

1. Key Points of the Day

① Yankuang Yulin set today's methanol auction starting price at 3,100 RMB/ton for a volume of 6,000 tons. All lots were ultimately sold at prices between 3,150 and 3,155 RMB/ton.

② National Energy Group Yulin’s 600,000 tons/year olefin plant and 1,800,000 tons/year methanol unit shut down completely on October 10 for maintenance. The overhaul is expected to last approximately 45 days.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

[Commentary] Today, the domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,427.09, a decrease of 46.21. Specifically, the spot price in Taicang was 4,025 (+180), while the price on the Inner Mongolia North Line was 3,200 (-125). According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices declined in 6 cities by varying degrees, ranging from 25 to 300 RMB/ton. Today, trading sentiment in the domestic methanol market improved slightly in stages. Futures prices surged then pulled back. In coastal areas, near-term supply remained tight, and combined with restocking demand, the basis strengthened intraday. In inland markets, as some short positions covered and downstream rigid demand followed up, prices stopped falling and rebounded modestly in many regions. However, current downstream demand remains average. Additionally, some olefin enterprises continue to sell feedstock externally, and overall inland supply is gradually loosening. Consequently, mid- and downstream buyers remain cautious about chasing higher prices. The market is expected to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term.

3. Basis

Afternoon trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange saw methanol futures fluctuate and consolidate. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,220 RMB/ton, hit a high of 3,320 RMB/ton, and a low of 3,220 RMB/ton, closing at 3,262 RMB/ton, up 29 RMB/ton from the previous day's settlement price. By close, open interest for the MA2701 contract reached 804,300 lots, an increase of 38,100 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Production Dynamics for Methanol and Downstream Products

Data Source: Chempricehub

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, trading sentiment in the domestic methanol market improved slightly in stages. Futures prices surged then pulled back. In coastal areas, near-term supply remained tight, and combined with restocking demand, the basis strengthened intraday. In inland markets, as some short positions covered and downstream rigid demand followed up, prices stopped falling and rebounded modestly in many regions. However, current downstream demand remains average. Additionally, some olefin enterprises continue to sell feedstock externally, and overall inland supply is gradually loosening. Consequently, mid- and downstream buyers remain cautious about chasing higher prices. The market is expected to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term.

7. In the medium-to-long term, facing high post-holiday methanol prices, mainstream downstream enterprises have partially shut down operations, significantly alleviating the tight supply situation in the methanol market. Furthermore, with ship arrivals expected in November, port inventories are projected to increase. After substantial declines in regional methanol prices, the market has entered a wait-and-see phase. Attention should be paid to the market impact following the supply-demand tug-of-war in the methanol sector.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

Data Source: Chempricehub

7. Related Products

Glacial Acetic Acid: Factory prices softened locally today, and the market trended lower accordingly. While factory shipping sentiments varied, market psychology weakened, with traders lowering their offer ranges. Overall trading activity was lackluster. Chempricehub expects that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to decline locally in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market remained stable but showed signs of decline today. Costs stabilized and rose along with the upward trend in raw material methanol prices. Most formaldehyde plants had limited prior declines. Affected by cautious downstream demand sentiment, some plants continued to make follow-up price cuts, while others maintained stable prices due to reduced supply caused by restrictions on National VI standard transport vehicles, focusing primarily on fulfilling existing orders. Chempricehub expects that the formaldehyde market may stop declining and stabilize in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market operated steadily today. Production enterprises mostly focused on clearing inventory, with some units maintaining low operating rates. Downstream demand was flat, and traders had strong willingness to ship goods. Chempricehub expects the DME market to maintain range-bound consolidation in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: List of Domestic Methanol Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub
Notes:

1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data points with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data points with changes within 0-3%.