The ethanol market exhibits regional divergence in price trends, with localized downward pressure on prices.

【Introduction】The domestic ethanol market shows divergence by product category and region. Bio-fermentation ethanol prices fluctuate up or down due to corn costs and regional demand differences; fuel ethanol in Northeast China faces pressure as low-priced supply flows out; coal-based ethanol maintains a generally stable but weak trend, with localized price reductions. Operating rates of plants in various production areas have changed, downstream buyers are mostly following rigid demand, and new transaction volumes remain limited overall.

1. Regional Divergence in Domestic Bio-Fermentation Ethanol: A Tug-of-War Between Costs and Demand

Ethanol and Related Product Price List for the Current Period (Unit: CNY/ton)

This week, regional trends in domestic bio-fermentation ethanol diverged significantly. Prices for corn-based ethanol in Northeast China rose, while markets in major production areas such as East China and Henan weakened. Markets in Sichuan-Chongqing and South China remained stable. On the supply side, the overall supply volume of bio-fermentation ethanol decreased slightly. Most corn ethanol plants in the Northeast maintained operations: Shenglong, Dongfeng Hualiang, Hongzhan, Wanli, COFCO Zhaodong, Zhongke Green, Jilin Fukang, Xintianlong, Yushu, Zhalantun, SDIC Hailun, Jidong, and Tieling units were all producing normally. In Henan Mengzhou, two units operated stably, Houyuan stopped briefly for one day, while Xinxiang Tianguan and Xinxing Biological remained shut down. In Sichuan, Hongzhan, COFCO Bengbu (dual lines), Wanshen, Shandong Qufeng, and Huating units produced normally, while the Suzhou unit was shut down and Jiyinmeng underwent maintenance shutdown. The Guangxi region showed divergence: COFCO stopped production, while Xintiande and Jinyuan units started operation, with Jinyuan's products mostly consumed internally.

On the cost side, the average domestic corn price rose overall. Purchase prices for corn in both Northeast China and Henan increased, providing cost support for corn-based ethanol in the Northeast. Edible ethanol factories in the Northeast continued shipping based on previous long-term contracts. Coupled with rising raw material and logistics costs, delivered quotes increased. However, after the price hike, new order follow-up was weak, resulting in sluggish transactions.

Prices for cassava ethanol and wheat ethanol in East China faced downward pressure, with quotes gradually falling in Shandong and Anhui regions. Downstream demand was weak, and some chemical raw material users shifted to more cost-effective coal-based ethanol. Additionally, weakening prices for goods from Henan impacted local high-priced supplies, causing prices for general-grade and anhydrous ethanol to continue falling, with chemical delivered prices also declining. Wheat ethanol factories in Shandong mainly executed previous contracts, adjusting quotes downwards in line with market trends. Goods from Anhui linked with neighboring regions, leading to lower prices. The premium ethanol market in Henan was weak; although factories in Mengzhou maintained stable operations, there were fewer vehicles picking up goods at the plant gate. Limited rigid downstream demand led to inventory accumulation and subsequent price reductions. Low-priced supplies existed in the Xinxiang market.

The ethanol market in Sichuan remained stable within a range. Hongzhan units produced steadily, and local quotes saw little fluctuation. Brand customers prioritized purchasing local supplies, though externally sourced goods from Henan offered certain price advantages. The South China market was generally stable with consistent cassava ethanol supply. In Guangxi, COFCO stopped production, while Xintiande, Jinyuan, Haiying, and Wanwei units operated, with Jinyuan having a high proportion of self-consumption. Molasses ethanol prices remained stable, with transactions primarily driven by rigid demand.

2. Pressure on Northeast Fuel Ethanol Shipments, Prices Oscillate Downwards

This week, fuel ethanol prices in Northeast China oscillated downwards, while overall supply within the market remained relatively stable. Load rates at Hongzhan and Wanli Runda in Heilongjiang were stable. Units at SDIC Tieling, Hailun, and Jidong produced normally. COFCO Zhaodong, Jilin Fuel Ethanol, and the two fuel ethanol production lines at COFCO Bengbu in Anhui continued output. Market willingness to ship was strong, with low-priced supplies continuously flowing out. Incremental export orders were limited, and some enterprises conducted inventory transfer operations. Inventory pressure at most factories remained manageable.

As of press time, the negotiation range for fuel ethanol in Heilongjiang was 5,800–5,901 CNY/ton, with transactions concentrated at the lower end. Some ex-factory supplies were priced at 5,300–5,400 CNY/ton. Delivered prices in Liaoning were 6,180 CNY/ton, with factory ex-gate quotes at 5,550 CNY/ton. Delivered prices in Jilin were 6,149 CNY/ton, with some factory ex-gate quotes at 5,600 CNY/ton.

3. Coal-Based Ethanol Market Stable but Weak, Regional Price Gaps Widen

This week, the coal-based ethanol market was generally stable but weak, showing regional divergence. Quotes from factories in Shaanxi, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong remained steady. Prices in Hunan held flat, while quotes in Guangdong and Xinjiang declined. Mainstream quotes in Hubei remained stable. Overall supply was sufficient. One unit in Shandong stopped production. Units at Shaanxi Yushen Energy & Chemical and Yulin Kaiyue operated normally, while the Xing Chemical unit was shut down. Load rates at Anhui units were stable. Operations at Daya Bay in Guangdong and Anyang in Henan were steady, while the Yongcheng unit in Henan stopped production. Yuanhan Jingmen and units in Hunan produced normally, and Tianye in Xinjiang supplied stably.

Price References:

• Shandong: 6,200 CNY/ton, unchanged MoM.
• Shaanxi: 5,400 CNY/ton, with preferential low prices for large-volume buyers.
• Anhui: Online auction starting price 5,900 CNY/ton, unchanged MoM.
• Henan (Anyang): 5,900 CNY/ton, unchanged MoM.
• Hunan: 6,050 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton MoM.
• Hubei: 6,050 CNY/ton, holding steady.
• Guangdong: 6,400 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY/ton MoM.
• Xinjiang (Tier-1 Distributor): 4,600 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton MoM.

Total weekly supply of coal-based ethanol remained stable. At the beginning of the week, trading sentiment in the Northwest region was decent, with active pickups by downstream users and traders. Some factories controlled pickup rhythms, prioritizing long-term contract orders. Supplies from Anhui were primarily handled through online auctions and contract shipments. Consumption of coal-based ethanol in the chemical sector was reasonable, and inventory levels at production enterprises were generally not high.

4. Fluctuating Regional Profits, Clear Operational Differences

Domestic Ethanol Profit Table (Unit: CNY/ton)

Analysis of Northeast Corn and By-products: As of November 12, the national weekly average corn price was 2,229 CNY/ton, an increase of 21 CNY/ton from the previous week, representing a 0.95% rise. This week, domestic corn prices first rose then fell, with production areas leading and sales areas following. Grain sales from grassroots levels in production areas were slow, and deep-processing enterprises raised prices to encourage procurement, pushing the price center higher. Sales areas faced pressure from increased port arrivals and rising inventories, resulting in prices that first rose then fell, with overall upward momentum weaker than in the North.

Dried Cassava Chip Analysis: Thai dried cassava chip prices remained stable this week. Current market quotes for Thai dried cassava chips are FOB $240–$245/ton, with the RMB exchange rate fluctuating around 6.6684.

Molasses Analysis: Guangxi molasses inventory sales occurred this week. Factory pickup prices ranged from 750–800 CNY/ton, with road transport delivery adding approximately 50 CNY/ton in freight costs. Currently, production profits for molasses ethanol are acceptable, prompting some plants to start operations.