Supported by today’s gas feedstock auction, the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to continue rising in the near term.

1. Today's Summary

2. Power of Siberia gas supply to China expected to reach 39 billion cubic meters this year
   On October 20, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that natural gas supplies to China via the "Power of Siberia" pipeline are expected to reach 39 billion cubic meters in 2026, exceeding the contractual volume of 38 billion cubic meters. Novak noted that Russia and China have agreed to expand the pipeline's supply capacity to 44 billion cubic meters. He also revealed that both sides are discussing a second project, which plans to supply 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Russia to China. Gazprom and PetroChina are currently negotiating commercial terms, with an agreement expected to be reached. As negotiations for "Power of Siberia 2" progress, Sino-Russian natural gas cooperation is poised to deepen further, supporting energy security in Northeast Asia.

3. Russian Arctic LNG accelerating flow to China; eastbound voyages hit record high
   On October 14, it was reported that from January to September 2026, LNG carriers completed 48 eastbound voyages via the Northern Sea Route, surpassing the full-year record of 41 voyages in 2025 and continuing the growth trend since 2022. In September alone, 23 eastbound voyages were recorded, more than double the 10 voyages during the same period in 2025. At least 8 additional eastbound voyages were tracked in the first 13 days of October. This growth is primarily driven by Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2, accounting for approximately 56% and 38% of eastbound voyages, respectively. The proportion of sanctioned vessels has risen from about 7% in 2024 to over 45% in the first nine months of 2026, while fleet ownership has become increasingly opaque. Cargo prices for Arctic LNG-2 are 30% to 40% lower than Asian spot prices, attracting Chinese buyers, while other Asian importers have largely stayed out. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the "Ice Silk Road" aligns with Russia's development of the Northern Sea Route, and that the two countries should strengthen their maritime strategic coordination. Analysts suggest this trend may reduce China's reliance on suppliers from the United States and Africa, but its impact remains dependent on the enforcement of sanctions, China's procurement decisions, and the economic viability of Arctic shipping routes.

Table 1: Domestic LNG Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Market Prices: Today's national LNG ex-tank price stood at 7,470 CNY/ton, up 75 CNY/ton from the previous working day. Today's imported resource price was 7,476 CNY/ton, up 90 CNY/ton from the previous working day.

Domestic Supply: Today, Northwest LNG prices continued to rise steadily amid stability. Production volumes at Northwest LNG plants remain low, and overall inventory levels are not high. Demand for vehicle fuel in the Northwest region is moderate, with high prices suppressing local demand. Traders are cautious about purchasing at elevated price levels, resulting in a lackluster market trading atmosphere. However, an additional auction session held this afternoon saw transaction prices range from 4.38 to 4.69 CNY/cubic meter. The lower end increased by 0.11 CNY/cubic meter compared to the mid-month auction, while the upper end rose by 0.18 CNY/cubic meter. A total volume of 50 million cubic meters was offered and fully sold, suggesting that plant prices are likely to continue rising tomorrow.

Imported Gas: CNPC's Rudong receiving station released LNG resources for external sale, halting the upward market momentum. Traders who had previously stocked up are actively selling loaded trucks, leading to an increase in overall supply in the East China LNG market. On the demand side, a market turning point is beginning to form. Downstream procurement intensity remains low, as traders worry about a potential downward trend later. Currently, purchasing is mainly based on immediate needs.

3. Production Dynamics

Imports: On October 21, the truck loading volume at LNG receiving stations was 23,352 tons, a decrease of 5.04% month-on-month. Shipments from North China totaled 2,310 tons, down 2.65% month-on-month; shipments from South China were 8,232 tons, down 3.69% month-on-month; and shipments from East China were 11,907 tons, down 6.59% month-on-month.

Domestic Production: No plant startups or shutdowns were reported today.

Profitability: Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the average theoretical profit for sampled factories in Inner Mongolia was -32 CNY/ton, an increase of 60 CNY/ton compared to the previous working day.

4. Price Forecast