Ethylene Tar Market Prices Remained Largely Stable (October 30, 2026 – November 5, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① The United States stated it would not launch new military strikes against Iran before the midterm elections, and multiple countries continue to push for US-Iran peace talks, easing concerns over supply risks.

② Efforts by various parties to promote US-Iran peace talks are ongoing, temporarily alleviating supply risk anxieties.

③ The US Democratic Party won majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, regaining control of Congress. The market anticipates a potential de-escalation of US-Iran conflicts.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Ethylene Tar Market Overview:
This week, domestic ethylene tar prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with trading driven primarily by rigid demand. On the supply side, declining crude oil prices have weakened support for ethylene tar. Demand is showing clear divergence: terminal demand in the carbon black industry remains weak, leading to cautious procurement; however, rigid demand for pitch-coating asphalt persists, supporting high-quality supplies. The outlook for substitute high-temperature coal tar is expected to remain high but weakening, marginally reducing bottom-line support for ethylene tar. Falling international crude oil prices have diminished cost-floor support. Market sentiment is heavily weighted towards wait-and-see, and ethylene tar prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range next week.

3. Statistical Table for Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:
According to data monitoring from Chempricehub Information, as of the 5th, Sinopec's naphtha ex-factory price for November 2026 is projected to adjust to 7,671 CNY/ton, an increase of 621 CNY/ton compared to the previous month.

International crude oil prices are expected to have downside room next week. WTI may trade between $81-91/barrel, and Brent between $87-97/barrel. The core logic for this forecast is that the Democratic victory in the midterms reduces the risk of large-scale US-Iran conflict, weakening geopolitical support for oil prices and creating downward pressure. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply Side: Senior Iranian parliamentary officials indicated exemptions from Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions for vessels from China, India, Iraq, and Qatar, easing market concerns about supply risks. However, tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains weak, keeping supply unstable.
2. Demand Side: Q4 enters the traditional off-season for refined oil product demand, with limited growth in heating oil consumption. Weak European manufacturing suppresses diesel consumption, lacking upward pull on end-user demand.
3. Geopolitical Situation: The market expects that with Democrats controlling both chambers, Trump's space for launching large-scale military strikes against Iran will be constrained, cooling expectations for full-scale conflict. However, since the election results have not yet officially taken effect and there is time until the formal inauguration in January next year, underlying US-Iran contradictions remain. The current administration still retains autonomy for military action, so the risk of renewed strikes on Iran must still be watched. Additionally, Houthi attacks disrupting Red Sea shipping mean sudden geopolitical disturbances remain possible.
4. Financial Attributes: The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged, though expectations for a December rate hike persist. The impact of the US Dollar Index on oil prices remains limited in the short term.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast:
Looking ahead to the next cycle, raw material coal tar prices have seen limited fluctuations recently, maintaining stable consolidation with little cost-push momentum. Furthermore, downstream tire manufacturers are pressing for price reductions on new orders, and positive market signals are not obvious. The carbon black market is expected to operate weakly but steadily next week.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast:
The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to see a slight decline in the next period. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply Side: Advances in coal supply guarantees and production resumption have lowered the cost center for coke. Although coking enterprises have slightly reduced production due to losses, the contraction in supply is limited.
2. Demand Side: With the downstream maintenance season ending and weather turning colder, downstream operating rates are relatively stable, so rigid demand for coal tar persists.
3. Sentiment: Bearish sentiment is strong in the market, and downstream buying enthusiasm is expected to decline.
4. Inventory: Coking enterprises currently face no significant inventory pressure.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast:
Crude oil prices face downside risks in the next period. Domestic marine fuel markets expect main components to follow this decline strongly. However, short-term supply of diluents and finished products remains tight, providing some support to wholesale prices. The 180 CST wholesale price is expected to remain stable with slight declines within the cycle. The national weekly average price will drop compared to the previous week, but the decline will be smaller than that of the cost side. The mainstream transaction price for 180 CST tank farm pickup across the country is expected to be in the range of 7,200-7,500 CNY/ton. Mainstream supply prices for National VI diesel to ships are expected at 10,000-10,800 CNY/ton, and for light marine fuel oil at 10,000-10,800 CNY/ton.

Next Period Ethylene Tar Market Forecast:
International crude oil faces downside risks in the next period, weakening cost-side support. Substitute high-temperature coal tar is expected to decline slightly, further weakening the relative price support for ethylene tar. On the demand side, the carbon black market is operating weakly but steadily; downstream tire makers are pressing for lower prices, leading to cautious procurement by carbon black enterprises. Only rigid demand for pitch-coating asphalt remains decent, providing limited floor support for high-quality supplies. Overall, bearish factors dominate, with downstream buyers purchasing only on demand and holding a heavy wait-and-see attitude. Ethylene tar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly next week. Key tracking points include crude oil trends, high-temperature coal tar transactions, and changes in carbon black operating rates.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.