Strong Expectations of Supply Tightening Drive Significant Strengthening of MEG Basis

1. Daily Summary:

① Ethylene glycol (EG) inventory at major East China ports stood at 153,000 tons, down by 12,000 tons compared to the previous statistical period.
② International crude oil prices dipped slightly, while coal prices remained stable.
③ Shipments from major East China ports were flat compared to the previous period.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic EG Market Closing Prices (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On November 12, the closing price for EG in Zhangjiagang was 5,980 CNY/ton, up by 320 CNY/ton. The closing delivered price in the South China market was 6,200 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton. The USD-denominated closing price was $740/ton, up by $50/ton.

The EG market witnessed a significant upward trend today. At the morning open, spot prices in Zhangjiagang started high around 5,940 CNY/ton. During trading hours, bullish factors such as disruptions to vessel cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz drove both futures and basis spreads higher significantly. The center of negotiation shifted sharply upward, with prices breaking through the psychological level of 6,000 CNY/ton in the morning session. The upward momentum continued into the afternoon, with closing negotiations settling around 6,250 CNY/ton. Spot basis spreads widened substantially, opening near Jan+950 and rising throughout the day to close near Jan+1200. The South China market followed suit, but the rapid surge resulted in fewer offers and stagnant intraday trading.

3. Spot Basis

Spot basis spreads widened significantly, opening near Jan+950 and rising steadily during trading hours to close near Jan+1200.

Table 2: Jiangsu Market Spot Basis Changes (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3: Operating Rates by Process Technology (Unit: %)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On November 12, the overall domestic EG operating rate was 60.80% (up by 0.54%). Integrated units operated at 56.84% (stable), while coal-to-EG units operated at 67.81% (up by 1.51%).

In November 2026, the total installed capacity of domestic EG units increased to 30.569 million tons. Specifically, syngas-to-EG capacity was adjusted to 11.05 million tons (due to Xinjiang Tianying's successful technical upgrade increasing capacity from 150,000 to 200,000 tons, and the exclusion of Xinjiang Tianye Phase II's 300,000-ton unit). Non-syngas based capacity remained stable at 19.519 million tons.

Table 4: Profit Margins by Process Technology (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Port Shipment Status:

On November 11, 2026, daily MEG shipments from a mainstream warehouse zone in Zhangjiagang totaled 4,600 tons, down by 13.21% week-on-week. Daily MEG shipments from two mainstream warehouse zones in Taicang totaled 2,100 tons, up by 50.00% week-on-week.

Major Port Inventory Status (Updated on Mondays and Thursdays):

As of November 12, total MEG inventory in major East China ports stood at 153,000 tons, down by 12,000 tons compared to last Monday and down by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday.

Breakdown: Zhangjiagang held 73,000 tons, Taicang 54,000 tons, Jiangyin & Changzhou 16,000 tons, and Shanghai & Changshu 10,000 tons.

Regarding shipments: Average daily shipments from Zhangjiagang were 4,800 tons, and average daily shipments from the two Taicang warehouses were 1,700 tons.

Table 5: Weekly Comparison of East China Port Inventories (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Market Sentiment

Table 6: Domestic EG Upstream and Downstream Stakeholder Sentiment Forecast (Updated Weekly on Thursdays)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

6. Outlook

Geopolitical tensions have eased, placing crude oil in a downward channel; however, renewed tightness on the supply side has significantly increased bullish sentiment, driving the market higher. Tomorrow's ex-works spot price in East China is expected to range between 6,200 and 6,300 CNY/ton.

7. Related Product Markets

1. Related Product Prices

Table 7: Polyester Chain Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

2. Load Rates for Polyester-related Products:

PTA Load Rate: Decreased to 68.69%, based on an annual capacity of 93.3 million tons.
Polyester Load Rate: Stable at 75.52%, based on an annual capacity of 91.225 million tons.

3. Intraday Sales Volume for Polyester:

Today (November 12, 2026), the average sales volume ratio for sample polyester filament manufacturers was 37.3%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. Filament producers continued their shipment-focused strategy, but downstream buyers showed low interest, resulting in sparse inquiries and mediocre sales performance. Specific sales ratios were: 55%, 26%, 100%, 35%, 30%, 40%, 20%, 35%, 30%, 30%, 25%, 15%, 30%, 36%, 30%, 35%, 20%, 0%, 20%, 40%, 40%, 25%, 30%, 30%, 40%.

Today (November 12, 2026), sales volume for Chinese direct-spun polyester staple fiber (PSF) factories was 64.65%, up by 1.48 percentage points from the previous trading day. Specific sales ratios were: 92%, 90%, 30%, 90%, 45%, 150%, 20%, 30%.

Today (November 12, 2026), the sales volume ratio for sample domestic PET chip enterprises was 63.99%, up by 44.75 percentage points from the previous period (November 11, 2026). Rising costs prompted some factories to take advantage of the situation to ship goods, leading to a clear improvement in overall sales. Specific sales ratios were: 70%, 80%, 200%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 20%, 300%.

8. Data Calendar (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)