Monomer prices remain stable for the time being.

1. Today's Summary

① Raw Materials: East China ethylene oxide (EO) prices stood at 9,100 RMB/ton, while domestic ethylene prices fell to 10,100 RMB/ton.

② Demand: Downstream buyers remained cautious, with purchases limited to spot orders driven by immediate needs.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer (PCE) Macromonomer Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Domestic PCE macromonomer prices remained stable today. Ethylene oxide prices held steady; supply tightness persisted in the market, keeping spot prices relatively high. Trading was primarily driven by immediate demand. Downstream derivatives showed limited acceptance of high-priced cargo, resulting in widespread wait-and-see sentiment. Some derivative manufacturers moderately replenished stocks with lower-priced cargo, but purchase volumes were small, dominated by spot orders for immediate needs. Cost-side support remained present, with sporadic new orders released by monomer producers and downstream buyers seeking to restock at lower prices. In summary, the price of EPEG in the key East China market is projected to remain at 9,800–10,300 RMB/ton for the next business day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic PCE macromonomer industry stood at 28.78%, a month-on-month decline. The gross margin for HPEG macromonomers was -132 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

For the next business day, domestic PCE macromonomer prices are likely to remain stable as the market waits for direction. Key raw material ethylene oxide is expected to trade steadily; units under maintenance have not yet restarted, keeping supply pressure manageable. Downstream industries are consuming inventory at a steady pace. Domestic ethylene trading has been sluggish for several consecutive days, with persistent negative factors on the demand side exerting downward pressure on prices, though cost-side support may provide a floor. Monomer manufacturers are focused on fulfilling existing contracts, while downstream buyers exhibit strong wait-and-see attitudes. Raw material procurement remains limited to immediate needs, with new order follow-up sporadic and transactions negotiated based on volume. In summary, EPEG prices in the key East China market are projected to range between 9,800 and 10,300 RMB/ton.

5. Related Product Update

① Ethylene Oxide (Raw Material): EO prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, rising monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices have increased the incentive for co-production units to prioritize MEG output. Coupled with stable operation of EO units within the market, overall supply remains balanced with no significant increase. On the demand side, downstream industries are progressing steadily, primarily taking delivery via contract orders. On the cost side, available ethylene supply is ample, and downstream market performance is weak, suggesting potential downside space for prices. Overall, EO fundamentals show no significant changes, and prices are expected to consolidate in the short term. Continued monitoring of upstream and downstream developments is advised.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic PCE Macromonomer Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)