Stable ethylene oxide prices supported by adequate supply

1. Today’s Summary

1. Oct 15: Tensions in the Middle East continue to pose supply risks, while market sentiment regarding global demand remains pessimistic, leading to mixed movements in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI November futures closed at $97.97/bbl, up $2.88/bbl (+3.03% WoW); ICE Brent December futures closed at $105.92/bbl, down $0.14/bbl (-0.13% WoW). INE Crude Oil Futures (contract 2612) fell by 21.3 to 725.2 yuan/barrel; night session rose by 0.8 to 726 yuan/barrel.

2. Oct 15: Portside ethylene USD spot price (CFR Northeast Asia) stood at $1,130/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Ethylene oxide prices remained stable today. On the supply side, as monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices stabilized after a decline, co-production units have limited incentive to prioritize ethylene oxide production. No new supplies are expected in the short term, keeping overall market supply tight. Demand from key downstream industries lacks momentum, with purchases primarily driven by rigid needs. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices remain stable. Derivative markets show inquiries based on rigid demand, resulting in moderate trading activity. Overall, supply-side support maintains price stability. Future trends require continued monitoring of upstream and downstream developments.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry was 55.9%. As of the previous trading day, the theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced via imported ethylene procurement was 1,898.13 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced via domestically sourced ethylene procurement today was 1,818.75 yuan/ton, remaining flat week-over-week.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to trade steadily. On the supply side, units undergoing maintenance have not yet resumed operations, maintaining a tight supply landscape with no new sources entering the market. On the demand side, key downstream industries exhibit significant wait-and-see sentiment, with purchasing mainly driven by rigid requirements. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices remain stable, supply pressure is low, and derivative markets follow suit with rigid demand. Overall, supply-side support underpins the market, and prices are projected to remain stable. Continued attention should be paid to changes in both upstream and downstream sectors.

5. Related Products Update

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Major external sellers in East China anticipate maintenance shutdowns, which may boost buying enthusiasm among surrounding downstream producers. Additionally, available spot resources in northern regions remain limited, strengthening supply-demand support. East China prices are expected to range around 8,750–8,900 yuan/ton, while Shandong prices are projected to hover around 8,900–9,000 yuan/ton. In terms of USD pricing, supported by firm expectations for crude oil and naphtha prices, along with ongoing rigid domestic demand, there is potential for a slight recovery. CFR Northeast Asia prices are expected to range between $1,100–$1,200/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers are likely to remain stable. Key raw material ethylene oxide may maintain a firm trend. With previously maintained units not yet restored, supply pressure remains manageable, reducing the availability of low-priced spot goods. Downstream industries across various sectors are steadily consuming contracted volumes. Low-end ethylene transactions have increased, and producers face no inventory pressure, suggesting market prices will likely continue their stable trend with cost-side support. The monomer market is focusing on steady shipments with little willingness to offer discounts. Downstream buyers are mostly digesting previous stockpiles, with only minor rigid orders emerging as many adopt a wait-and-see approach. Transactions are negotiated based on volume. Consequently, the key East China EPEG price is forecasted to range between 10,000–10,200 yuan/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical uncertainties persist, and crude oil prices remain high, providing cost-side floor support for the MEG market. Short-term market conditions are expected to stabilize and consolidate. Next week, East China spot ex-tank prices are projected to range between 5,650–5,800 yuan/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 Tons)

Note:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with price changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with price changes within 0–3%.