Ethylene Oxide prices remain stable.

1. Today's Summary

1. Oct 16: The conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continues, combined with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both elevating supply risks and pushing international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $101.41/bbl, up $3.44/bbl (+3.51% vs previous close); ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $109.86/bbl, up $3.94/bbl (+3.72%). China INE crude oil futures (December 2026 contract) fell by 2.2 to 723 RMB/bbl in the day session, but rose by 16.8 to 739.8 RMB/bbl in the night session.

2. Oct 16: Port ethylene USD CFR Northeast Asia price was $1,130/ton, unchanged from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable today. On the supply side, units undergoing maintenance have not yet restarted, new spot orders are limited, and market supply is tight but steady. Major downstream industries are purchasing based on rigid demand, while market sentiment remains cautious. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices have remained stable; ethylene downstream markets show inquiry activity driven by rigid demand, though transaction volume is average. Overall, fundamentals show no significant fluctuations, EO prices remain stable, and attention should continue to be paid to upstream and downstream developments.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 55.87%. As of the previous business day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was 1,898.13 RMB/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene today was 1,743.75 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to run stably. Monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices have retreated, potentially leading co-production units to consider switching products. Combined with the fact that the market is dominated by contract orders and spot supplies are limited, short-term supply conditions will remain tight. On the demand side, major downstream industries have stockpiled ahead of some unit maintenance, maintaining rigid demand follow-up. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices are stable, and available ethylene inventory in the market has increased. Overall, there is support from the supply side, so EO prices are expected to remain stable. Continued monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is required.

5. Related Products

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Outlook for the ethylene market: Currently, domestic ethylene supply is tight, and downstream derivatives still show buying interest. It is expected that ethylene prices may remain firm in the next business day, with a slight upward trend. Mainstream negotiation prices in East China are expected to stay within 8,750–9,000 RMB/ton, and in Shandong within 8,900–9,000 RMB/ton. Regarding USD pricing, shipping availability for USD cargo remains tight, and the USD market is expected to remain firm, with prices likely hovering around $1,080–$1,180/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are expected to remain temporarily stable. The main raw material, ethylene oxide, is also expected to stabilize as the market maintains rigid demand transactions. Downstream industries across various sectors are consuming their contracted volumes. Shipping pressure in the ethylene market has eased, with some high-price transactions gaining volume. Therefore, it is highly probable that prices will remain stable in the short term, supported by fundamentals and potential cost-side support. The monomer market is mainly selling steadily; sellers are reluctant to release low-priced cargo, downstream buyers are making small replenishment purchases based on rigid demand, and willingness for bulk procurement is low, with transactions negotiated according to volume. In summary, the mainstream EPEG price in East China is expected to be in the range of 10,000–10,200 RMB/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical uncertainties persist, and crude oil remains at a high level, providing certain positive support to MEG costs. However, under the dominance of supply-demand dynamics, bullish confidence is difficult to gather, and the short-term trend remains downward. Given the significant cumulative decline recently, the probability of a rebound repair is high. Tomorrow's spot self-pickup price in East China is expected to be in the range of 5,350–5,450 RMB/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data List (Unit: 10,000 tons)