Spot indices have retreated, with trading activity initially strong before weakening; short-term consolidation within a narrow range is expected.

1. Key Points of the Day

① Inner Mongolia ENN Methanol's auction starting price today was 2,980 yuan/ton for a total volume of 4,000 tons. The final transaction prices were 3,010 yuan/ton for 2,700 tons and 3,015 yuan/ton for 1,300 tons.

② Chongqing Wansheng's 300,000 ton/year methanol plant is currently under maintenance as of October 14, with normal production expected to resume in 4–5 days.

2. Today's Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Today's Commentary] Today's methanol spot price index stood at 3,318.99, down by 29.35. Specifically, the Taicang spot price was 3,960 (-23), and the Inner Mongolia North Line price was 3,072.5 (-42.5). According to Chempricehub's monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, 9 cities experienced declines ranging from 15 to 75 yuan/ton. Today's domestic methanol market trading sentiment started strong but weakened later. Intraday futures adjusted narrowly amid weakness. With port spot supply remaining tight, some buyers followed up on dips, keeping the basis slightly firm, though the afternoon saw some stalemate. Attention remains focused on developments regarding the Nanjing MTO project. In inland areas, upstream producers actively lowered auction prices; combined with restocking orders from mid- and downstream sectors, the overall premium trading atmosphere was good in the morning but turned weak again in the afternoon. In the short term, based on expectations of weakening supply-demand dynamics, the market is predicted to undergo narrow-range consolidation, with limited room for small-scale rebounds.

3. Basis

Afternoon methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted within a narrow range. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,172 yuan/ton, hit a high of 3,223 yuan/ton and a low of 3,146 yuan/ton, closing at 3,192 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the previous session's settlement price. By close, the open interest for the MA2701 contract was 812,500 lots, an increase of 31,500 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Production Dynamics for Methanol and Downstream Products

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today's domestic methanol market trading sentiment started strong but weakened later. Intraday futures adjusted narrowly amid weakness. With port spot supply remaining tight, some buyers followed up on dips, keeping the basis slightly firm, though the afternoon saw some stalemate. Attention remains focused on developments regarding the Nanjing MTO project. In inland areas, upstream producers actively lowered auction prices; combined with restocking orders from mid- and downstream sectors, the overall premium trading atmosphere was good in the morning but turned weak again in the afternoon. In the short term, based on expectations of weakening supply-demand dynamics, the market is predicted to undergo narrow-range consolidation, with limited room for small-scale rebounds.

7. In the medium to long term, facing high post-holiday methanol prices, some mainstream downstream enterprises have halted operations, significantly alleviating the tight supply situation in the methanol market. Additionally, with ship arrivals expected in November, port inventories are projected to rise. After significant price drops across various regions, market participants have adopted a wait-and-see approach. Currently, attention must still be paid to the market impact following the supply-demand tug-of-war in the methanol sector.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Participants

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Product Status

Glacial Acetic Acid: Today's glacial acetic acid market price continued to decline. Plants in Northwest China and Henan Province have resumed normal operations, leading to a slight increase in capacity utilization. However, shipping conditions varied among plants, with some lowering prices by 50–100 yuan/ton. Traders' selling sentiment was mediocre, and downstream procurement remained weak. Chempricehub Information predicts that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to fall locally in the short term.

Formaldehyde: Today's formaldehyde market center shifted downward. While raw material support strengthened in main production areas, product prices were constrained by strong price-cutting sentiment in the downstream wood panel market. This prevented formaldehyde plants from raising prices despite wide fluctuations in costs, reflecting weak bargaining power for the product itself and resulting in passive declines. Chempricehub Information predicts that the formaldehyde market may stabilize and stop falling in the short term.

DME: Today's DME market operated steadily. Supply within the market remained stable, with plants primarily selling existing inventory. Industrial downstream users maintained minimal rigid demand purchases. Inquiry activity was average, and transactions were generally unremarkable. Chempricehub Information predicts that the DME market will consolidate sideways in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data points with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data points with changes within 0–3%.