- Key Market Focus This Week
① Raw material pure benzene remained volatile at high levels, exerting significant pressure on production costs.
② The integration rate between cyclohexanone and caprolactam is high, resulting in a weak balance of supply and demand for spot cyclohexanone.
- Weekly Market Analysis
This week, the average market price of cyclohexanone experienced minor adjustments. The weekly average spot price in East China was 11,685 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 0.65% compared to the previous week’s average. During the week, the raw material pure benzene market fluctuated within a range, maintaining cost-side pressure. Cyclohexanone plant operating rates remained low, and given that producers were facing losses, the market price trended slightly stronger.
- Next Week Market Forecast
The spot cyclohexanone market is expected to follow pure benzene trends with continued volatility next week. Key points to monitor include:
- Supply Side: Overall operating rates for domestic commercial cyclohexanone plants remain low, leading to limited spot availability. Inventory pressure among enterprises is not severe, and there persists a reluctance to sell at lower prices.
- Demand Side: Domestic integrated capacity linking cyclohexanone and caprolactam accounts for a large proportion, meaning most caprolactam producers have sufficient self-supplied raw materials. Order flow from the chemical fiber sector remains weak, while the solvent segment continues to purchase based on immediate needs. Consequently, overall demand performance is sluggish.
- Cost Side: Although inventory buildup expectations are weighing on the market, strong crude oil prices provide support against downstream restocking demands, limiting significant downside potential. The market is projected to maintain wide-range fluctuations at elevated levels. The reference negotiation range for spot transactions in the East China market is estimated at 9,500–10,200 RMB/ton. Overall, robust cost support combined with continuous de-stocking at ports suggests that the East China pure benzene market will maintain a strong upward bias next week, thereby providing substantial cost-side support for cyclohexanone.
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