Lead-in: During the National Day holiday, domestic 2-EH plant operating rates stood at 77%, indicating a medium-to-high level of production load. Key downstream sectors, namely plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate (IOA), operated at medium-to-low levels, leading to reduced rigid demand for 2-EH. The market experienced loose supply during the holiday, while pre-holiday restocking by downstream users was lackluster. Consequently, the 2-EH market faced downward pressure. As of October 5, ex-factory prices in Shandong fell to RMB 8,700/ton, a decrease of RMB 250/ton from the mainstream Shandong price on September 30, resulting in losses for manufacturers.
Figure 1: Daily Price Trend of Domestic 2-EH (2025–2026) (RMB/ton)
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Prior to the holiday, significant declines in international crude oil prices impacted overall sentiment in the chemicals market. Downstream traders and end-users adopted a cautious stance towards spot 2-EH procurement, with low willingness to actively take delivery. Overall buying enthusiasm remained persistently weak.
On the supply side, operating loads at domestic 2-EH plants rose steadily, increasing total market supply and gradually accumulating spot inventories. Before the National Day holiday, most producers proactively offered discounts to clear inventory and avoid stockpiling risks, resulting in a loose market supply. Weak downstream demand was the core factor constraining market activity. The mainstream plasticizer industry maintained only rigid replenishment models, engaging in limited opportunistic buying at lower price points. During the holiday, some spot ex-factory prices in Shandong faced downward pressure. However, due to rising propylene feedstock costs, cost-side support remained strong. Some 2-EH producers maintained firm offers, while buyers showed increased interest in sourcing cheaper volumes.
Figure 2: Weekly Production Volume and Operating Rate Statistics of Domestic 2-EH (2026) (10k tons)
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Given that 2-EH profitability was acceptable in September, previously shut-down units have plans for restarts. In early-to-mid October, domestic 2-EH plant operating rates are expected to exceed 75%, with anticipated increases in Shandong and East China. However, considering the negative margin situation for low-priced 2-EH in early October, this may impact the timing of some companies' restarts. Overall, industry supply remains in a loose state. Due to high-cost support and negative margins for 2-EH products, some producers are maintaining firm offers, and low-priced quotes in the market may gradually decrease.
Statistics on Changes in Major Domestic 2-EH Plants
| Enterprise Name | Running Capacity (10k tons) | Plant Dynamics |
|---|---|---|
| Daqing Petrochemical | 13 | Expected to restart in October; specific date undetermined |
| Tianjin Bohua Yongli | 28+45 | Three units operating at 70-80% load |
| Shandong Qilu Petrochemical | 25.5 | The 85,000-ton unit expected to restart after the National Day holiday |
| Dongming Oriental | 10 | Restart planned for October; specific date undetermined |
| Jiangsu Nanjing Chengzhi | 44.5 | Planned shutdown for maintenance in mid-to-late October |
| Jiangsu Huachang | 16+18 | Operating at approximately 90% load |
| Anqing Shuguang | 33 | Shutdown for maintenance from Sept 13 to late Oct |
| Ningxia Baichuan | 12 | Reportedly has maintenance plans for October |
On the demand side, during the National Day holiday, some major downstream producers of DOP and DOTP reduced output or briefly halted operations. It is estimated that 2-EH consumption decreased by 0.2 million tons/week compared to the last week before the holiday, leading to a slight increase in industry inventories. Companies with a higher proportion of contract sales have controllable inventories, supporting their ability to maintain firm offers at higher levels. For companies primarily engaged in spot sales, transaction prices leaned towards the lower end, creating a wide spread between high and low prices. The atmosphere for low-price transactions has shown gradual improvement.
Cost Side: During the holiday, raw material propylene prices rose.
Before the National Day holiday, domestic 2-EH plant operating rates were generally stable, but the market center fluctuated within a narrow range due to weak demand. Looking ahead, although supply remains loose, cost-side support is strengthening. With propylene prices rising and 2-EH experiencing negative margins, some producers are holding firm offers, which may reduce the availability of low-priced cargo. Demand recovery post-holiday will be key; if downstream plasticizers resume normal purchasing, the market could see a rebound from current low levels. Currently, the gap between high and low transaction prices is significant, but sentiment for low-price deals is improving.
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